PCLN – Priceline (Last:1229.21)

The stock’s stall two weeks ago near a 1268.66 midpoint resistance shown suggests it could get to 1354.32 on a breakout.  Although we cannot predict with confidence if or when this will happen because PCLN has been meandering sideways for the last five weeks, as a riskless play I’ll suggest buying the August 16 1340-1350-1360 call butterfly spread for ‘even’ 32 times. This means you would short two 1350 calls, buy one 1340 call and one 1360 call for no debit or credit.  In practice the easiest way to do this will be to buy the 1340/1350 call spread 1:1 at targeted swing lows, and to sell the 1350/1360 call spread 1:1 at targeted highs. If you do either and then get a move your way of as little as perhaps $2.50, legging into the ‘fly for free (or even a small credit) would be relatively easy. The maximum profit on this position would be 32 x $1000 = $32,000, although in practice we’d be doing well to come away with half that much if the stock were to rally to 1350 by August 16. ______ UPDATE (7:50 p.m.): Another way to leg into the spread would be to sell the 1240/1250 ratio 1:2 when PCLN is making a short-term top, then to buy a 1260 later, at a swing low.