PCLN – Priceline (Last:1288.20)

A subscriber reported success yesterday legging into the 1340/50/60 August 16 call butterfly that I’d advised. He did so 32 times at no cost, as suggested, but it took a $10 move in the stock between legs to get filled so advantageously. His maximum profit would be $32,000  with the stock trading at 1350 come August 16.  Since he owns the position without cost, no loss is possible even if PCLN should all to zero or rally to $1000. We’ll do nothing further for now, but I’d suggest that those of you who were unable to buy the spread keep trying.  We’ll shoot for a partial profit if the stock rallies $40-$50 in the next few weeks but otherwise do nothing further. I’ve reproduced a chart that shows why our expectation of a $120 rally from current levels, to a 1358.18 Hidden Pivot target, is not exactly farfetched.  To that end, a pop above the 1270.59 midpoint pivot would be most encouraging. ______ UPDATE (July 28, 7:46 p.m. EDT): Yesterday another subscriber reported legging into ‘free’ butterfly spreads as suggested. Keep trying for at least one more day if you haven’t yet acquired a stake, since the spread will remain cheap as long as PCLN doesn’t blast off.  ______ UPDATE (August 3, 6:10 p.m.): Several subscribers reported success legging into the ‘free’ butterfly spread as suggested. The position is riskless at this point, but last week’s selloff has lengthened odds of a big payoff. Priceline will have to show some giddyap in the days ahead to give the spread a fighting chance. _______ UPDATE (August 4, 1:03 p.m.):  With PCLN caught in a vicious short-squeeze, our butterfly is currently BID around 0.90, meaning the worst possible exit right now would produce a position profit for us — based on 16 spreads — of $1440; and the best, based on a 2.10 offer, of $3,360. Accordingly, I’ll suggest offering half of the spreads now for, oh, 1.30. That would lock in a $1040 profit before commissions.  The stocks has blown past two clear, compelling D targets this morning, implying buyers are not quite done, short-term.