ECZ14 – December Euro (Last:1.2477)

The analysis presented elsewhere on this page for the Dollar Index is very bullish, but is it corroborated by an equally bearish picture in the euro? The answer is yes, as can be inferred from the ponderous look of the long-term chart (see inset).  How far could the euro fall? In the chat room Tuesday, I broached the possibility that it could eventually go to parity with the dollar, a level not seen since 2002. Strictly speaking however, and based on the long-term chart, I can forecast no worse that 1.08. That would represent a 13% fall from current levels and a 32% decline from the all-time high of 1.60 achieved in 2008. That number is a Hidden Pivot support, and although a bounce there would be likely, there are no guarantees that the euro would not take yet another leg down. Bottom line: euro/dollar parity is possible, but even if it is not achieved the euro still has much farther to fall.