T-Bonds and bullion have gotten savaged lately, leaving us to wonder what they see lurking on the horizon. Whatever it might be, the stock market has been in a holding pattern for nearly a month, seemingly oblivious to the scent of danger. This can’t go on for much longer, but its hard to imagine the tension will be resolved by a sharp move by shares to new record highs. Will there be an October surprise, then? Out-of-the-money puts expiring on October 21 seem too cheap to let it happen. Looking just beyond that date, however, betting the ‘don’t pass’ line seems like a fat bet at the moment.