The Dow Industrials impaled a crucial resistance at 19492 with such force on the final trading day of 2016 that they appeared all but certain to achieve a related target at 21,101 that first appeared here several weeks ago. That’s 1159 points above Wednesday’s closing price. At the rate things are going, the target could be achieved by mid-month, if not sooner. Even so, I am growing increasingly wary of the Trump rally, especially with a bust in the housing sector taking shape due to the rise in interest rates. Because of this I have been monitoring the lesser charts for any hint of buyer fatigue — or remorse. If bulls are getting winded, we should see minor abcd corrections start to reach or exceed their ‘d’ targets. This idea follows from the Hidden Pivot rule that strong trends tend to produce weak retracements — i.e., retracements that do not complete abcd patterns, but instead reverse from somewhere near the midpoint of their c-d legs. In any event, we’ll want to short 21,101 aggressively, albeit with a tight stop-loss, if and when it is reached.
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