Inflation Ahead? Yeah, Sure.

EST

Do T-Bonds know somethingThe inflation drumbeat has grown more insistent lately, stoked by Fed blather about raising rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Yeah, sure. I’m not buying any of it, particularly statistics that purport to show inflation even in Europe.  An epic deflation still awaits and eventually will be triggered by the implosion of a largely uncollateralized, quadrillion dollar derivatives bubble. A further, irresistible catalyst will be the zeroing out of deferred, unpayable liabilities in our pension and healthcare systems. These deflationary black holes cannot be ‘monetized’ like the financial system, since they involve real cash sent to real recipients each month to pay for real services and real goods. More immediately, the bull cycle has peaked for residential and commercial real estate. If these factors add up to the return of inflation, then I am a monkey’s uncle. T-Bonds seem to know all of this, having risen sharply in recent weeks. Don’t be surprised if the trend continues.

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Rich February 12, 2017, 9:18 am

Hi All
Big picture v Trading Tactics
We are strong T’s
But not for long until PnF targets flip back up

&&&&&

Welcome back, Richard. I’m confused. If you are waiting for Treasurys to turn up on (presumably) longer-term point-and-figure charts, how is it that you are now “strong” in/on them? RA

John Jay February 9, 2017, 3:29 pm

There are so many financial winds, so many demographic winds, and so many industrial winds all blowing at the same time, that is impossible to predict the outcome precisely, but it will likely be bad.

A few examples:

Commercial aircraft manufacture.
Many moons ago, Boeing was the whole show for the West.
Now, you have the United States, Europe, Russia, China, Japan, Canada and Brazil all gunning for a share of that pie.

Manufacturing.
The robots are are growing so increasingly capable and sophisticated, it is hard to believe they are real. I have seen youtube clips of robot dogs and humans, etc. that I would swear are just CGI fantasy. But they are very real.

Central Banks.
They have all turned into Deflation Killers, buying up stocks, bonds, and even worthless MBS type paper etc. to avoid a great re-set.

Demographics.
Europe is suffering through the new version of the fall of Constantinople in 1453 AD.
In our hemi-sphere, Venezuela and Puerto Rico are already failed states.
Brazil had to send in the military when Police went on strike. Too many people for the system to take care of.

Not to mention the threat of Nuclear Combat that will end it all.

And with those many cheerful facts, I have barely scratched the surface!



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