Where Have All the Contrarians Gone?


After stocks gapped openIt looks like two straight days without pain is about as much comfort as bears are ever going to get.  The market forged steadily higher on Friday, thumbing its nose at my crazy suggestion to fade any rally. I’d written here Thursday night that if the payroll number came within 25,000 of the 175,000-job estimate, traders would have no particular reason to push stocks one way or the other. Well, the actual number came in at 227,000 new jobs, well above the guesstimates of the overpaid wankers whose main tool is the dartboard.  Even by my skeptical lights, however, the number was at least somewhat meaningful, since many of the jobs supposedly added to the economy were in the construction business — 36,000 of them, according to the Commerce Department. An additional 32,000 jobs materialized in the finance sector for paper-pushers, and while it’s inconceivable they will add anything tangible or even useful to the economy, it certainly can’t hurt if they are getting paid by some firm to do whatever is they do. (“Deals,” one would surmise.) Note that these jobs must be properly chalked up to Obama rather than Trump. This suggests that the economy could soar with Mr. Tax-and-Regulate out of the way (although not yet out of mind, most unfortunately, since our 44th president appears to have hunkered down in Georgetown, presumably to influence events much as Regan MacNeil’s satanic alter-ego did in the same neighborhood 43 years ago.) Anyway, judging from the way the week ended, bears are about to get sacked yet again when America’s securities exchanges re-open for business Sunday night. Permabears that we are, we are so absolutely certain about this that perhaps it’s time, finally, for the Mother of all Selloffs to emerge from the bowels of hell. Sounds like a decent contrarian bet, although Mr Market’s rules typically don’t allow contrarians to bet against themselves.

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Tuesday, April 17, 2018

The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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