April Crude

Wednesday's report on crude oil inventories plucked the oil price like a guitar string.  The chart quieted down after tracing an ABC pattern which might allow us to get long a market that has been grinding higher for several weeks.  Traders should bid 81.34, just above the midpoint pivot, and, on the theory that the oil market has gotten its ya-ya's out for now, we will recommend a tighter stop than usual, at 81.23, for a hypothetical risk of $110 on the trade.  The sibling D target is not considered a buy, however, as it is just above an important prior low. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (10:29 a.m. EST):  The futures bottomed a penny beneath our bid, giving us a perfect entry price; then they shot up to 82.08, yielding a theoretical profit of as much as $740 on $110 of risk. They have been spasming wildly ever since, but by now you should be out with a nice profit in any case. 

On Monday oil reversed one tick above a midpoint pivot and then impulsed down.  The new downward pattern gives both bulls and bears something to work with.  Bulls can view the midpoint at 81.14 as a possible buying level.  Bears, emboldened by the Monday reversal, can see the D target of the new pattern at 80.36 as a minimum downside objective. (Posted by Doug McLagan) ______  UPDATE (12:07 a.m. EST): I usually suggest allowing at least 21 cents' leeway when trading  this vehicle at Hidden Pivot swing points. That would have been just right this morning, since Crude has bounced nicely after making a low at 80.16. If you got aboard, you should take profits now on a multi-lot position or implement a trailing stop on a single contract, since the fiutures have bouncd as high as 81.00.

The futures have eaten through a midpoint resistance at 80.90, suggesting buyers have appetite enough for more upside to as high as 84.74.  Because this vehicle requires stop-losses of at least 21 cents for anyone trying to enter at Hidden Pivot swing points, I don't feature it much as a trading vehicle.  However, with nearly $3 more of upside immediately in prospect,  "camouflaged" opportunities to get long should abound, especially on retracements to midpoints that the rally has turned from resistance into support (i.e., 80.90, for one).