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After Tuesday's sharp but short-lived swoon, crude oil looks bullish again.  A print at 84.57 would confirm a new daily pattern with midpoint and "D" targets of 86.62 and 90.74, respectively.  In between those levels is a "D" target of 88.71, described here on April 5.  The session high so far has fallen short of an important prior high at 84.51, visible on the 30-minute chart.  Traders should watch for a camouflaged buying opportunity, perhaps based on a small pattern which impulses to just above the 84.51 prior high.  Stop orders should be ten to twelve cents above any of the three pivots if shorting is attempted.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (April 15, 05:40 a.m. EST):  Traders should watch the pullback from 86.39 for a Hidden Pivot-based opportunity to get long with limited risk.  The powerful impulse wave from 84.24 to 86.39 on Wednesday morning surpassed a prominent prior high by two ticks, and we might expect a follow-through CD leg to begin soon.  The 30-minute chart gives us a good view of the action, and a 54-cent rally will confirm a pattern so long as the pullback is not too deep.  After the Wednesday rally, the 86.62 midpoint pivot looks dangerous as a place to go short. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (April 16, 03:15 a.m. EST):  Oil has declined enough to call the Wednesday impulse wave into question, so we will take this tout off the actionables list and await developments. The daily chart remains bullish, with the two patterns we have been watching still very much intact.

Crude oil might be trying to reverse its five-day downtrend this evening, as the session low is just above a prominent Hidden Pivot.  Traders should watch this bounce and consider entering on the long side if a camouflaged opportunity arises.  If the 83.90 pivot is breached by more than a few cents, we might expect oil to find support at 83.46, another Hidden Pivot.  The futures are probing for a "C" point on the daily chart, and if they find it above, say, the 81.50 level, the chart will remain very bullish.  A move below the 78.86 prior low will turn the daily chart bearish and would cancel a still-active pattern with a "D" target at 88.71.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (12:49 p.m. EST):  The rally from 83.94 did not get very far, but the 83.46 pivot was surpassed by only three ticks, and we never recommend stops as tight as that in the volatile crude oil market.  Traders who bought at 83.46 were rewarded with about $500 of upside per contract.  Subsequently the futures fell to 82.51.  The 88.71 target is still in effect, but for now we will remove crude oil from the actionables list and await further developments.

A newly active pattern on crude oil's daily chart adds to the resistance just above its recent high but projects to 91.93 if that resistance can be overcome.  The new midpoint pivot is at 88.15, not far below the "D" target of 88.71 from a larger daily pattern described in the April 5 tout.  Traders attempting to short any of these levels should choose their own entry points and should use stops at least ten cents above each pivot.  A print above 88.80 would clear the resistance zone and give high odds that the 91.93 target will be reached.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (01:30 p.m. EST):  The futures dropped through the "C" point shown in the chart, cancelling the 88.15 and 91.93 targets.  The 88.71 target remains in effect.

Crude oil has made an 18-month high during the current session and appears bound for a Hidden Pivot at 88.71.  A large and accurate bounce off of the midpoint of the daily pattern shown in the chart lends credence to the target.  Traders should look for a way to get long with limited risk using hidden pivot analysis of the intraday charts.  A pullback beginning not far above the 85.43 January high might provide camouflage to buyers.  The "D" target can be shorted with a stop at 88.81.  Sell orders should be placed no higher than 88.69, for a minimum hypothetical risk of $120 per contract.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)

Friday's sharp decline in the oil price kicked off a pattern which projects to three-week lows, just as the Commitments of Traders report informs us that the commercials have built up their short holdings substantially.  Traders should look for a smaller bearish pattern to emerge, possibly from the grey "A" marked on the attached chart, to enable a low-risk short entry.  Another possibility might come from a bounce from just above the midpoint pivot of the main pattern, at 79.97, creating the appearance of support and thus providing camouflage.  Traders who are unable (or unwilling) to get short should consider buying the "D" target of 78.80 with a bid at 78.82 and a stop at 78.66, risking a hypothetical $160.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (09:25 a.m.):  Traders who found a way to get short have been rewarded with a drop to 78.86 thus far.  That is four ticks above our recommended long entry, and with the subsequent bounce, we think it's time to invoke the "no sloppy seconds" rule and cancel the order to buy at 78.82.