The E-Mini S&P has pulled back by a few points, presumably so that DaBoyz can suck up some inventory ahead of whatever announcement from Europe impends. Camouflage-trained night owls can be confident that these dirtballs will not be able to move the futures from this holding pattern without telegraphing their intentions via very minor impulses legs we are well equipped to detect.
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E-Mini S&P
A 1353.00 target that I’d drum-rolled here precisely contained the spike top of yesterday’s opening-hour short-squeeze, but I have my doubts it will hold for long. For one, when we looked at ES’s intraday charts during yesterday’s impromptu trading session (recorded and viewable below), we discovered that the retracement abc’s were not reaching their midpoint pivots. And for two, bears will still have to face a firing squad when details of Greece’s latest, phony bailout hit the tape after a vote this weekend. Because the 1353.00 target was several weeks in coming, we might expect it to repel bulls for perhaps 3-4 days if stocks are bound still higher. But if ithe Hidden Pivot is obliterated just one day after first being touched, I would take that as a sign that DaBoyz are planning to move this market significantly higher.
Although I provided guidance yesterday for subscribers who mentioned in that chat room that they’d gotten short, I did not establish an “official” tracking position because it would have been impossible to get short using ‘camouflage’ as I’d advised. I’ll suggest nothing further for today, but if the futures blow past 1353.00, the next Hidden Pivot with potential stopping power lies at 1362.50. This number comes off the daily chart, and although the A-B impulse leg is less than stellar, the target itself should be considered good enough for government work. _______ UPDATE (2:01 p.m.): That 1353.00 target is holding up better than I’d expected, what with the news that all has not been made to appear hunky-dory in Europe. Hard to tell why the agreement on Greece is stalled, but it still seems like a bad bet that They are going to let the country go down in flames. It is not Greece They care about, of course, but banks holding Greek paper. For perspective on how much of it they hold, check out Seawolf’s link in the forum by clicking on ‘Comments’ just beneath the Commentary headline. Click here for details concerning the upcoming Hidden Pivot Webinar, where you can learn to do this stuff yourself.
This impromptu session from Thursday morning runs a little more than an hour, touching on B of A, the E-mini S&Ps and Comex gold. But of greatest interest, perhaps, in the final 15 minutes, is a detailed (and bullish) look at the HUI Gold Bugs Index. My suggestion is to fast-forward to this segment (unless you’re interested in the real-time ‘camo’ portion related to other vehicles).
April Gold and the E-Mini S&Ps appear to be roughly in synch Wednesday night, but neither is doing much. Check out today’s tout for Silver Wheaton if you’ve been waiting for a spot to enter or augment a long-term position.
I’ve asked veteran camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide less-experienced traders if an exceptional opportunity to short the E-Mini S&P should occur when I’m not around. If our entry trigger gets hit while I’m conducting the weekly tutorial session online between 11 a.m. and noon EST, I’ll make sure the information is disseminated in the chat room at that time.
I’ve alluded to a key target in today’s commentary, and although merely talking about it has made it one of those high-profile numbers that are probably jinxed from the start, the Hidden Pivot itself is real enough and should provide sufficient stopping power to allow us to get short without risking too much.
Putting aside the promotional hubris of today’s commentary, which the public can access, subscribers should be aware that if the futures reach the 1353.00 target, they’ll be in new recovery territory, trading above April’s important 1344.50 peak. That implies that they will have created a fresh bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, an eventuality that will shorten the odds of our hitting a four-bagger on a bear trade. Still, our goal will be to get aboard without stress, and to simply go with the trade as far as it will take us. My hunch is that the 1353.00 pivot will be hit overnight Tuesday or Wednesday morning, so I’m depending on the legion of experienced camouflageurs who frequent the chat room to guide rookies if things pan out as we might wish them to. _____ UPDATE (February 9, 11:22 a.m. EST): The futures spiked to 1352.75 about 50 minutes before the opening bell. Some subscribers evidently got short, and said so in the chat room. However, strictly speaking, it was not possible to do so via camouflage until about 90 minutes later, so I won’t record the trade officially. Unofficially, though, and for your further guidance, with the futures currently trading around 1346.00, I’d suggest covering three-quarters of the original position for a profit, tying the remaining 25% of it to a stop-loss at 1349.75. This is not a trade on which we should be swinging for the fences, since the markets are waiting opportunistically for news on Greece – any news at all will suffice — that will conduce yet another short-squeeze and running of the bears. Concerning the Fat Lady’s aria, keep in mind that there is still an outstanding target at 13085 in the Dow Industrials. _______ FURTHER UPDATE 11:36 a.m. EST): The 15-minute chart is currently bearish, working on an ABC correction (A=1350.25 at 9:45 a.m. EST) that projects to 1337.50. This implies a possible ‘camo’ buying opportunity on any minor abc rally at the 1342.00 midpoint associated with the target. That last number is also my minimum downside objective for the very near-term. ______ AND FINALLY… (1:34 p.m. EST): As I noted a short while ago in the chat room, the fact that the futures were unable to correct down to the 1342.00 midpoint augurs new highs, probably today.
The stock market hasn’t been much fun to trade in a while, but that could change today as the broad averages approach some potentially important rally targets of ours. Want to know exactly where these targets lie but don’t subscribe? Click here for a free trial subscription that will give you access to our proprietary numbers. One of them foresaw a 600-point rally in the Dow that is nearly complete. The other is a bullish target for the E-Mini S&Ps that smacked us in the eye yesterday with its clarity. There are also two bank stocks whose deft handlers appear to be setting up suckers for the kill. These financial biggies are household names, but because they are in the thick of Europe’s bailout hoax, they are destined to go down with the ship. Under the circumstances, the hysterical, short-squeeze rallies that have driven their shares steeply higher may be ready to seven-out. » Read the full article
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With the E-Mini S&Ps and April Gold both somewhat lower Sunday, it would appear that they have been resynchronizing. My outlook for both is bullish, although it looks like they could use a day or two of rest before attempting another leg up.
Countdown to ‘World-Shaking News’ from Europe
by Rick Ackerman on February 10, 2012 12:01 am GMT · 37 comments
[I'm running this commentary for a second day because of the high-minded discussion it has elicited. Please be aware that an announcement next week concerning the latest bailout for Greece would probably generate a short-squeeze rally on Wall Street, much as it has a dozen times before. Be that as it may, a potentially important target at 1353.00 that I'd flagged here for the E-Mini S&Ps has held thus far, the futures having spiked in the opening hour yesterday to...1352.75. In other trading notes, a rally target for Bank of America shares was bullishly exceeded, although two more important ones remain: 13085 for the Dow -- a longstanding objective of ours; and 119.91 for Goldman Sachs. Taken together, the prospect of simultaneous tops in so many bellwethers suggests that an important trend change could be imminent. Click here for a free trial subscription to Rick's Picks if you'd like to keep abreast of further developments in real time. RA]
The financial world is on pins and needles as “investors” await Europe’s latest, quasi-momentous decision on the fate of Greece. The Greeks themselves, no fools, were a step ahead of the politicians and bankers, rioting in the streets. Many of them have probably imbibed enough austerity to last a lifetime. Keep tightening one’s belt a notch at a time and eventually you’re left with two bloody torso halves. Not that the bankers would mind the mess as long as they get paid. So what, actually is at stake in this latest chapter of the eurobailoutpalooza? The rescue package under discussion amounts to a piddling €130 billion, and we can’t see how it’s going to make much of a difference. Even if it’s only intended to buy a little time, a sum as meager as that may not see the Eurocrisis through the weekend, much less through 2012. For perspective, Flint, Michigan’s unfunded retirement and health benefits total about three times as much. Is Flint in worse shape than Greece? Hard to say, although the close proximity of such charming resorts as Corfu and Rhodos, as opposed to beautiful downtown Detroit, would seem to tip the quality-of-life numbers in favor of the Greeks, even the down-and-out day-trippers. » Read the full article