DaBoyz spent most of the week screwing the pooch, waiting for more Hormuz twaddle from Trump to help them jack the markets, or for a headline speculating that the Fed might be less inclined to tighten for whatever reason. The latter helped foment a middling, 60-point short-squeeze on Thursday, but by week’s end stocks appeared to be settling back into their wonted state of constipation. Not that that will make them any less tradeable: Bottom-fish 7778.50 with a tight stop if you’re around when it’s hit. (Note: When I say “tight,” I mean to imply that you should use a small pattern ‘camo’ trigger to initiate the trade, and that it risks no more than small change to get you on board.) Concerning the bigger question of whether we are in a bear market, bull market, or a sideways correction, it can be answered much more easily than you might imagine, using the simple chart shown. If the September contract falls to the green line without having exceeded 7838.50 first, that would imply bulls are taking a long overdue rest. Expect the fall to hit p=7676.00 at least but watch out below if they impale it on first contact. An easy breach of d=7613.75 would be the most bearish sign the S&Ps have flashed in a long while. One final note: Consider my Microsoft tout (immediately below) alongside this one, since the stock remains a key bellwether for the long-term bull market.
ESU26 – September E-Mini S&P (Last:7802.50)