Price has found support at the 907 level and is currently trying to move higher on the daily chart. If that level is broken you would be looking for 885 and then 864 as price objectives. For price to make a move higher on the daily chart price would have to go through 935 and then you could look for the 966 level. The price on the 15 minuter chart reached the 119 price objective noted in the chat room during the day. The 916-917 level indicated in yeaterday’s post was hit early. Each price objective first acts as resistance and then acts as support. When a price objective is reached you should look at your indicators and see if it is telling you that the move is over. If so, exit the trade and look for the next trade. Right now there is downside pressure being applied to this chart and the price objective for the down move is 909. Look for some support at the 910 level.
Ira
Gold seems to be on a slippery slide for now. I personally feel that there is a real possibility for gold to reach the $2000 level with a stop on the way up at $1300. But not right now. I am posting two charts for today – a daily and a 60-minute.
The daily chart shows that GCQ09 is working in a downward-sloping channel. I am not a big fan of channels, but it does give a pretty good visual insight as to what we are looking at. With all of this downside price action there has been no major drop in the price of gold. There is still downside pressure being applied to the daily chart, but it is in an overextended area of the chart. Price found temporary support at the midpoint of the move, 921, and is now trying to reach D at 850.
The 60-minute chart shows that price was stopped at the target price, D, for the move down and has bounced off that level. For price to start higher, the futures would have to exceed 911; above that number, the first price objective would be 917. For price to restart the downtrend, the futures would have to exceed 903; then, the first price objective would be 896.
For the moment, patience is advised until the next move is signaled, either up or down. (IT)
Gold is having trouble sustaining loft and may have to go lower to buy some R&R time. However, a pop today touching 936.40 would put bulls back in charge, since that would create a robust new impulse leg on the hourly chart (see inset). Upside potential thereafter would be to as high as 952.80 over the near term; otherwise, the downside targets given here previouslystill obtain: 899.00, and 895.50.
As noted in today’s commentary, we should set the bar at 966.80 to avoid a false bullish signal. A thrust touching that number would turn the daily chart bullish, most convincingly so if the rally leg doesn’t correct for more than a day after exceeding the lower peak at 949.00 (#1) shown in the chart. The bearish scenario should be equally straightforward: a test of lows made in April, respectively, near 880 and/or 960. More immediately, the first hint of a potentially bullish turn would come today at 936.40. That would create a promising impulse leg on the hourly chart. (RA)
Unless the futures pop above 956.00 this week, it looks like gravity is fixing to pull them down to at least 899.00. A two-day close beneath 924.00, the midpoint support associated with the target, would likely clinch a decline to the target. However, if you’re looking for a more subtly nuanced turn for the better, it would come today on a 936.40 print. Night owls can try bottom-fishing at 924.30, stop 923.90, provided 934.00 is not exceeded first. _______ UPDATE (11:03 a.m.): Bids at 924.30 would have been stopped out for a loss of as much as 0.70, since the Hidden Pivot evinced zero support — in fact became resistance that seemed to persist seven hours later. This adds weight to the 899.00 target, although a thrust today or tomorrow exceeding 936.30 would give bulls a shot at turning thin around.
A Hidden Pivot at 955.20 looks like a high-confidence number at this point, so we’ll use it as a minimum upside projection for the near term. Buyers should look to get in near 939.00 Wednesday night, since that’s the midpoint sibling of our upside target, but please note that a prior low at 939.60 may impede the bid. _______ UPDATE (11:46 a.m. EDT): A buy near 939.00 would have allowed an exit no better than 941.30 after dipping as low as 938.20 , so the trade was a likely loser. Further weakness overnight was pointing to as low as 922.80 if the 927.30 midpoint support associated with that number fails.
A midpoint support at 920.60 is equivalent to the one I’ve flagged in SLV, but if you bottom-fish there a stop-loss no wider than 0.40 is advised. A downside breach would imply more selling to come and, presumably, a test of the 913.20 low recorded on June 22. Alternatively, the futures would need to touch 930.70 to negate the targets, and 937.10 to turn the lesser charts (i.e., 15-minute and lower) unambiguously bullish.
The chop-and-slop the last few days has rendered any Hidden Pivot targets that I might proffer useless, if not to say meaningless. I might be tempted to bottom-fish a swoon to 927.80 if it were to occur early in today’s session, but otherwise I’ll be expecting a labored ascent to 942.80 if that Hidden Pivot’s midpoint sibling at 940.00 gets brushed aside.
Signs point higher, although not with much enthusiasm. For the moment, we can use a pattern discernible on the hourly chart that projects to 955.10. Its associative midpoint is 944.40, so any decisive progress above that number should be regarded as evidence of the uptrend’s vitality.
The futures looked primedddddd for a thrust to 955.40 at yesterday’s close, although, as noted in the chat room, there are doubts about the sausage-y nature of the price pattern yielding that target. Even so, the fact that all three price coordinates — A, B and C — are single-bar beauties seems reason enough to overlook the pattern’s flaw and to simply go with appealing look of it. If this analysis is correct, crucial resistance lies at 941.50, the target’s midpoint sibling, and any pop above that number will be telegraphing a further rally of at least $14.
