GCZ10

Short-term signs portend a modest rally to 1377.60, but you'll have to improvise your own way aboard, since the five-minute chart that might allow decent camouflage has become too cluttered and claustrophobic to yield one glow-in-the-dark opportunity.  There are in fact many of them, but they are changing from one hour to the next.  FYI, the midpoint resistance by which you can judge the sincerity of any breakout lies at 1370.70.

With just a little extra push, the futures slightly surpassed the bullish rally target at 1366.10 that I disseminated late last night, creating a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart in the process. The implication is that buyers are about to take the futures up to at least 1371.70, the Hidden Pivot target of the pattern shown in the chart. If you're looking for a place to board -- presumably via camouflage -- the most logical spot to try would be near 1359.80, the c-d midpoint pivot of the rally under way. _______ UPDATE (9:52 a.m. ET):  Gold has achieved the target and then some, topping so far today at 1373.30. It will take a bit more than that, however -- specifically, a 1376.70 print before noon -- to refresh the bullish impulse on the hourly chart.  Otherwise, look for backing and filling and an unexciting rest-of-the-day.

With respect to the short-term picture, the futures have done little to encourage lately.  In fact, the sleazy head-fake on the opening bar Friday looked more like a short-squeeze-distribution ploy than bullish buying. It also failed to clear some minor peaks from last Monday, furthering the suspicion that Gold is in no great hurry to take flight. In any event, an upthrust today would need to exceed 1378.40 to catch fire.  That's the midpoint resistance on the pattern shown in the chart. ______ UPDATE (2:47 p.m. ET): It's shortly before 3 a.m. and the futures have been as high as 1364.80. The nearest HP target is 1366.10, but if the futures shred it, getting to -- and then past -- 1378.40 shouldn't be a problem.

For all of the exhilaration bulls may have felt yesterday, it must be noted that the rally failed by a potentially crucial point-and-a-half to surpass a key external peak at 1364.30. We'll give the bulls another chance today, however, since they were in the process of creating a 1366.00 target early Friday morning.  If it's reached, more upside to at least 1378.40 would become a safe bet.  That is the Hidden Pivot midpoint of the large pattern shown in the chart.

Gold's nasty, $100 slide has reversed from a low just shy of a visually obvious bottom at 1325.50 that launched the last, record-breaking rally. That's bullish, but we'll need to see further confirmation in the form of a new impulse leg of hourly-chart degree. A print at 1376.70 today would do the trick, but we'll use a less demanding indicator at 1369.50, a look-to-the-left peak notched November 15 on the way down.  A thrust today exceeding that number would put bulls back in charge of the short-term trend, at least.

We risked bupkus on the way down yesterday -- a day that should have held few surprises for Rick's Picks subscribers, since we began it with a quite bearish target and a headline that read "Bullion correction has further to go".  Skittish investors may want to notice that the entire decline so far, from the November 9 record high at 1424, has yet to exceed even a single "external" low.  It will take further selling down to at least 1315.50 to accomplish that and create a bearish impulse leg of daily-chart degree.  In the meantime, we'll move to the sidelines, since the value of any Hidden Pivot supports immediately below will be compromised by the close proximity of a key structural supports at 1325.50 and 1315.60.

The mildly compelling Hidden Pivot target at 1338.10 shown in the chart implies that lower prices are coming, especially since its sibling midpoint support at 1357.30 evinced little discernible support. The target can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1337.40, but if it's hit expect the key structural support at 1325.50 to turn magnetic. _______ UPDATE (11:42 a.m. ET):  The futures have traded as low as 1332.00 so far today -- down more than $36 at that point -- stopping out our bottom-fishing foray quickly and, one hopes, relatively painlessly.

Instead of speculating nervously about whether Gold is headed into some sort of horrendous decline -- a prospect which I strongly doubt -- let's simply focus on what Gold itself is telling us.  For starters, bulls would be back in charge of the day trend if they can push the futures above a very small peak at 1379.00 that's nicely visible on the 15-minute chart.  Failing that, and assuming no intervening move above 1375.50 (aka point 'c'),  a midpoint support at 1357.60 can serve as a correction target for the very near-term.  If it should fail decisively, however, we could infer that more downside awaits to at as low as 1339.80, its 'd' sibling.  A third Hidden Pivot support sits at 1354.70, and it looks to me like the most opportune spot to try bottom-fishing.  All three price points are shown in the accompanying chart. ______ UPDATE (5:29 p.m. ET):  How very coy.  The low of the day was...1354.80, a single tick from my number, but officially we'll score it as "nothing done," since, strictly speaking, the microscopic miss was as good as a mile.  If, for your own reasons, you did buy a tick off the low, you have a nice profit cushion to play with, since the futures are currently trading 1360.00, up $5.20 off the bottom.

Gold appears to be headed down to a Hidden Pivot at 1375.5, if not lower.  On Thursday gold bounced precisely off of the midpoint of a pattern that had been identified beforehand in the chat room and in the morning webinar.  The subsequent rally peaked more than thirteen dollars higher, but a sharp twenty-seven-dollar selloff followed.  The pattern's "D" target of 1375.5 is now our minimum downside objective.  Traders buying the target should put stops just below 1375.0.  If Wednesday's low of 1382.2 is not touched or surpassed - and it has thus far survived two vigorous assaults - then a pair of upside targets including 1431.6 will remain active.  (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (Saturday, November 13):  "If not lower" turned out to be the key phrase of this tout.  The futures bounced from 1377.3, missing our target, and after a seventeen-dollar rally they went into a steep thirty-five-dollar dive, slicing through the target and cancelling the bullish pattern referenced in the tout.