Silver was chomping on the bit Thursday night, just a couple of ticks shy of eating through the resistance of a look-to-the-left peak recorded Tuesday on the way down. Whatever further gains it achieves will be part of the impulse leg begun from the day’s lows, since the pullback from the high did not quite qualify as a correction. My minimum upside objective is currently 16.310, a midpoint resistance, but if it’s exceeded on a closing basis the new target would be 16.985.
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March Silver will have a chance to turn from 15.485, a Hidden Pivot support that can serve as our minimum downside target for now. But if there’s no bounce, brace for more slippage over the near term to as low as 15.255. Alternatively, it would take a rally exceeding 16.195 to turn the intraday charts bullish once again.
Silver would be demonstrating subtle power if it were to pop slightly above the two peaks show. If it does and then pulls back even momentarily into a valid b-c, be ready to attempt a camouflage entry at the conventional point x. I’ve sketched this out so that pivoteeers know exactly what to look for. I’d encourage you to share this knowledge in the chat room if you’re on top of it. _______ UPDATE: Silver fell overnight, negating our trade before recovering into the close.
For night owls, a midpoint support at 16.110 looks compelling as a place to try bottom-fishing. This Hidden Pivot is equivalent to the one noted in today’s gold tout, and it comes with the same caveat. A decisive breach would imply more immediate downside to as low as 15.920. Alternatively, it would take a pop today above 16.970 to turn the hourly chart into a cannon. ______ UPDATE (10:46 a.m.EST): Support at 16.110 proved neither precise nor durable, although the pivot was central to an overnight distribution that took two hours to play out. The relapse has sent the futures down to as low as 15.785 so far this morning, bringing into focus a 15.415 target. On a 180-minute chart, that is the midpoint support associated with A=16.950 (Feb 3).
A Hidden Pivot resistance at 16.795 is equivalent to the 1148.70 target given today for April Gold. Its midpoint sibling lies at 16.235, and so a pullback to that number, if it comes, could be the best buying opportunity ahead of the push. Keep in mind that the rally would need to go somewhat higher, surpassing a key peak at 16.950 recorded on February 3, to refresh the bull trend on the hourly chart.
Silver has lagged Gold since the February 5 bottom and is now in a nascent corrective pattern that could yield a low-risk buying opportunity at 15.180. This is a Hidden Pivot midpoint, and its provenance is shown in the accompanying chart. Bids should be placed at 15.185, stop 15.170, good through Monday.
If a midpoint pivot at 15.180 does not hold, silver’s next objective will be dual D targets of 14.085 and 14.030, which come from two distinct patterns on the daily chart. ______ UPDATE (04:10 p.m. EST): So long as silver remains below 16.330, the 15.180 and 14.030 targets are active. Just above 16.330 are additional hourly highs off to the left, up to 16.410. A move above 16.330 would be bullish, above 16.410 moreso.
In the chat room Thursday morning, our friend and astute metals trader Andy Maguire weighed in with the observation that J.P. Morgan, among others, was covering Silver shorts near last week’s lows, implying little downside risk from here. Assuming the March contract follows the same trajectory today as April Gold, we should look for a rally to as high as 16.070. Pivoteers should look for a camouflaged buying opportunity if the futures dip to 15.570 before taking off. That is the Hidden Pivot midpoint associated with the rally target. The futures have already been down there once, bouncing from 15.565, a single tick from the support, so if they return to the scene, odds won’t be quite as favorable for buyers the second time. _____ UPDATE: Like Gold, Silver was having an inside day as of 11 a.m. The futures had retreated sharply after marginally exceeding Thursday’s intraday high, but bears were not having much success trying to take out yesterday’s 15.175 low. ______ FURTHER UPDATE (12:30 p.m. EST, Feb 16): Silver has reached and surpassed the 16.070 target, thus completing the pattern.
There’s a not very inspiring rally target at 15.620 that is roughly analogous to the one proffered today in gold, but I wouldn’ recommend trying to get short there. If the futures should break loose for unexpected yardage, they could get to as high as 16.055 before encountering the next Hidden Pivot resistance.
Silver’s intraday charts are exhibiting the same faint-heartedness as gold’s, retreating into a dither after the failure of Monday’s rally to top any distinctive peaks in the lesser time frames. It also turned a minor Hidden Pivot support at 15.020 into suet, suggesting the selling is not done. That would imply more slippage to 14.435 over the near-term, or perhaps to 14.085 if it gives way. Both targets come from obvious patterns on the 180-minute chart. Alternatively, a show of strength today could hit 15.535.
