SIH13

SIK13 – May Silver (Last:24.495)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

May Silver looks bound for a minimum 25.460, or 24.925 if any lower.  These projections aren't rocket science, since the patterns I've used (bracketing two pairs of AB coordinates) to project the targets look too clear and compelling to be mistaken. ________ UPDATE (April 15, 12:20 a.m. EDT):  A powerful wave of selling Sunday night has pushed the futures down to a so far low of 24.080, bringing into play the 21.647 target shown. If it gives way, the lower B-C pair (26.419/35.300) would yield a worst-case bear-market low of 18.599.

SIK13 – May Silver (Last:28.845)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Back by (inexplicable) request today is Comex Silver. It has been in a really tedious dirge for a month (see chart), and so you can probably understand why I haven't had much to say about it. (Tracking gold's seemingly endless wallow has been taxing enough.) That said, I'll mention a 27.815 target that can be used a minimum downside objective for the near term.  Alternatively, if bulls are going to regain their mojo, it'll take a pop above the external peak at 29.280.  A 'b-c' pullback from 2-3 ticks above this number could yield the best buying opportunity we've seen in this vehicle in a while. _______ UPDATE (7:56 p.m. EDT):  Yesterday's blast easily vaulted 29.280, setting up an appealing camouflage opportunity.  Traders should use the pattern shown to get aboard once a point C is in.  _______ UPDATE (March 25): As we might have expected, Silver has settled back into the shallow rut that has asphxiated price movement for more than a month. I am dropping coverage of this dog until it either break down or impulses above the 29.670 'external' peak recorded on February 19.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:32.055)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver looks ready to pull gold higher, and it wouldn't take much to turn the intraday charts quite bullish. Notice in the chart that there are three peaks within 80 cents of current levels, two of them legitimate 'externals'.  I've set an alert at 32.800, a tick above the highest of the three, and it would be more than a little encouraging if it gets hit within the next day or two by an uncorrected upthrust.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:32.070)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A pattern similar to the one driving Feb Gold right now has the potential to power this vehicle to the 32.550 target shown over the near term -- or even to 32.795 if it's exceeded. For purposes of getting long, camouflageurs will have to show ingenuity, since easy opportunities on the lesser charts were close to exhausting themselves shortly after midnght EST.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:31.140)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

A bearish impulse leg on the daily chart that was followed by a downside breach of a midpoint support at 29.415 (see inset) has put the burden of proof on bulls. They could recover the high ground with an unbroken thrust exceeding peak #1, a true 'external' (31.535, from daily on January 2) ; and #2, an ersatz peak (at 32.600, daily chart, on December 18) will do for our purposes.  Otherwise, the bearish, 27.295 target will remain theoretically valid.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:30.380)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Over the last week or so, the futures have bounced feebly off the 29.770 downside target shown.  Because the target was exceeded by four cents, lower lows are likely. Under the circumstances, we should require a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart before waxing bullish. In practice, this means a rally exceeding at least one internal, and one external, peak on the hourly chart without a b-c correction. In fact, the closest external peak lies at 31.275, fully 85 cents above current levels. Practically speaking, an unbroken rally leg of that magnitude on the hourly chart is extremely unlikely. Stranger things have happened, but for the time being the burden of proof will continue to rest with bulls.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:33.010)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

My trading advice is to find something else to trade, since the price swings have been psychotic.  Not that that poses any particular problem for us -- only that there are more relaxing vehicles at our disposal. Two things to notice about yesterday's whoopee cushion ride: 1) if you blinked you missed it; and 2) the apex, a classic bull trap, failed by a hair to surpass a key external peak at 33.930 recorded on 12/3.  This type of action is both gratuitous and malicious, but it leaves the impression nonetheless that Silver is bound and determined at the moment to go anywhere except boldly higher.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:33.145)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

Silver's rally early Monday morning is a clone of the pattern I'd suggested using to get long on Friday. (Note: The trade failed to trigger, even on the one-minute chart.) Considering the effort it required to track and revise that dud, I'll avoid this opportunity like the plague.  However, for those who are equipped with "camouflage" tools and a hazmat suit, I'll mention that the little nubbin at 33.430 highlighted in the chart could be used to leverage a bull trade with relatively little risk. Keep in mind, though, that although it can be satisfying to pare risk to relative nickels and dimes, the primary objective is to make money.  In that regard, the odds are not especially encouraging for a bull trade here, since the larger pattern from which we would be extrapolating it is just "dueling" impulse legs on the daily chart. _______ UPDATE (December 11, 1:53 a.m. EST): A feint above 33.430 did indeed produce a tradable ABCD pattern with a halfway decent 'camo' entry opportunity, but the C-D follow-through leg would have been good for a ride no higher than 33.495 before Silver relapsed.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:33.090)

– Posted in: Current Touts Free Rick's Picks

It's bullish that the futures reversed strongly enough yesterday to generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart without have reached the 32.115 downside target flagged here. Moreover, the rally is just shy of triggering a buy signal at 33.180. If that price is hit today, I'd suggest using an ABCD pattern on the one-minute chart to get aboard via camouflage.  This set-up looks quite promising in that it seems likely to lift the nimble camouflageur at least to the 'p' midpoint of the traded pattern.  Night owls will need to be alert, however, since the opportunity could come before morning. _______ UPDATE (2:20 a.m. EST): The futures first touched 33.180 exactly two hours and 42 minutes ago, but they are only now generating the first tradable 'camouflage' pattern with the potential to conform to our rules. On the three-minute chart, here are the coordinates you might use to get long: A=33.110 at 2:03 a.m.; B=33.150 at 2:12 a.m.; and C=?  So far, at exactly 2:21:46, C is a double-bar low at 33.120, making the pattern untradable if played strictly by-the-book.  If you can follow this update up to this point, you don't need me to tell you what to do. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (2:26 a.m. EST): The futures seem heavy, and not just a little nasty. Under the circumstances, you should initiate the trade using camouflage only if all of our rules are perfectly met. As of 2:51 a.m., that would imply a rally on the 3-minute that is unpaused between 31.150 and 33.205.  These prices points correspond to 'external' peaks. Click here if you want to learn more about ‘camouflage’ trading, a technique developed to reduce entry risk very significantly.

SIH13 – March Silver (Last:32.850)

– Posted in: Current Touts Rick's Picks

The modest promise of the short-term chart displayed here the other day has given way to a more tired reality, and so it's appropriate to look at a bigger picture that shows what has been weighing Silver down. Notice that yesterday's swoon breached the midpoint support of a very clear bearish pattern that projects to at least 32.115. That Hidden Pivot is my minimum downside projection for the near term, and because it closely coincides with a low recorded in mid-November, you'll need to use 'camouflage' if you attempt bottom-fishing there, as I am suggesting.