Over the last week or so, the futures have bounced feebly off the 29.770 downside target shown. Because the target was exceeded by four cents, lower lows are likely. Under the circumstances, we should require a robustly bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart before waxing bullish. In practice, this means a rally exceeding at least one internal, and one external, peak on the hourly chart without a b-c correction. In fact, the closest external peak lies at 31.275, fully 85 cents above current levels. Practically speaking, an unbroken rally leg of that magnitude on the hourly chart is extremely unlikely. Stranger things have happened, but for the time being the burden of proof will continue to rest with bulls.
