SIU10

A print today at 18.825 would really cure Silver's blues, but short of that, any rally would just be marking time. There's nothing especially menacing otherwise, but if the futures take the path of least resistance, they're apt to test the summer's so-far lows with a drop to around 17.27.

There's no change in my immediate outlook:  September Silver must close above 18.485, a  Hidden Pivot midpoint, before we infer that it's a good bet to reach the 'D' sibling of that resistance, 19.170.

The rally stalled a single tick above the 18.485 midpoint resistance we used as a bullish benchmark yesterday, leaving the immediate outlook unchanged. The futures must still close above it before we infer that they're bound for its 'D' Hidden Pivot sibling at 19.170.

Nothing tricky here, analytically speaking. We'll use the obvious pattern shown in the chart in order to stipulate that September Silver must close above the 18.485 Hidden Pivot midpoint before we assume buyers are back in control. At that point, the futures would become an odds-on bet to continue over the very short-term to at least 19.170, the midpoint's 'D' sibling.

September Silver has two promising uptrends pushing it at the moment: a big one begun from 17.230 on June 6, and a lesser one begun from 17.480 (a one-off low) on July 29.  Both are shown in the accompanying chart. The first has already triggered a "buy" and slightly exceeded its 18.460 midpoint resistance, which is bullish. The second has also triggered (yesterday, at 18.100) but has yet to test midpoint resistance at 18.405. Let's be conservative and stipulate that the futures close above that last number before we infer that liftoff is in progress.  A two-day close above the 18.460 midpoint of the larger pattern would imply SI is unstoppable and bound for at least 19.595.

September Silver is nearing a 17.735 Hidden Pivot support that I'd suggest bottom-fishing with an 17.725 stop-loss. You should also pay heed to the still-developing down-pattern shown in the chart, since it could yield a midpoint support and 'D' target where tightly stopped bottom-fishing would be possible.

Silver's 15-minute chart looks a bit stronger than Gold's at the moment, so I'd suggest using the pattern shown, adjusting as needed if a lower 'C' is recorded, to get long.  The trade can be tied to a "time stop" of perhaps a minute or two if you don't want to risk a fall below 'C'. ______ UPDATE (2:39 a.m. EDT):  Silver fell without triggering the hypothetical buy described in the chart, but the stage-managed decline that has ensued could open up a bottom-fishing opportunity at 18.075, a Hidden Pivot target nicely visible on the 15-minute chart (A=18.575 on August 9 at 8:30 a.m.).  An 18.580 bid, stop 18.560, is advised. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (10:48 a.m. EDT): On their way down to a so-far intraday low of 17.960, the futures bounced 6 cents from 18.070 -- enough to allow a partial profit, or at least the implementation of a loss-proof trailing stop if you managed the trade using the 1:3 risk:reward ratio that I always recommend. My apologies, incidentally, for the senile mistake of somehow extrapolating an 18.580 bid from an 18.070 pivot. As someone in the chat room figured out, the trade made sense if you took out the numeral '5' .

Recent rallies have been encouraging -- though not stellar, since buyers still seem to be having trouble vaulting "external" peaks with each new intraday thrust.  The most important such challenge on the hourly chart lies at 18.820, and so we'll make that the number to beat today, or at latest tomorrow.  If the effort fails, it's a long way to the trendline we've been using on the hourly chart to project swing lows. It comes in around 17.370 today.

My short-term outlook is neutral, as in Gold, but if Silver were to plunge gratuitously it would become a tightly stopped buying opportunity at 18.075, a Hidden Pivot. The midpoint sibling of that number is 18.280, and the same analysis applies -- i.e., a bounce from the midpoint or higher that "goes impulsive" on the hourly chart would be a very bullish harbinger for next week. ______ UPDATE (3:00 p.m. EDT): Today's modest rally is technically meaningless, since the futures still need to take on two daunting peaks to generate a fresh impulse leg on the hourly chart. The peaks lie, respectively, at 18.700 (August 4) and 18.820 (June 30).