TYH10

On the eve of the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls freak-out, Treasury futures are near important resistance levels. The bonds have repeatedly failed to surpass a key daily high of 119^08 made in December, and the March Ten-Year Notes confront a double-strength hidden pivot at 118^19, not far above their high for the uptrend of 2010. The best circumstances for shorting this pivot would be an orderly move by the notes above the 118^14 level with the bonds remaining below 119^08 and thus failing to confirm. A move above 118^20 by the notes would point to a D target at 119^31.

Rally patterns on both the daily and hourly charts yield some potential opportunities to get short with relatively little risk. Most immediately, there's a midpoint resistance on the hourly at 118^06.5 that can be shorted via a 118^05.5 offer, stop 118^07.5.  Above it, perhaps more speculatively, you could short either 118^19.5 or 118^24 with a stop-loss sized to your taste and cognizant of important prior highs on the daily chart.  Upside breakouts in either case could lead to volatile action. The highest target immediately available lies at 119^31, but it is not in play just yet.  Pivoteers may be interested in the coordinates used to calculate the targets and midpoints given above. For the daily chart:  A 115^18 // B 118^09 // C 117^08 // P 118^19.5 // D 119^31; and for the hourly: A 117^11 // B 118^14 // C 117^21 // P 118^06.5 // D 118^24. _______ UPDATE:  The futures headed lower out of the gate, negating our plan.