October 2008

Yesterday's wilding spree easily exceeded the 9105 midpoint that where we'd set a tripwire to warn us if the rally got serious. And so it would appear, assuming bulls are able to hold the Indoos above 9105 for a second straight day. That would be reason to infer that 10,011 is possible before the buying sputters out. More immediately, we expect an easy move to 9400, a round number that coincides exactly with a Hidden Pivot. Any higher, though, and the next hidden resistance, at 9655, would be in play. Although we'd like to think these numbers will be reached in good time, the way stocks have been moving lately it might take only 2-3 days to use up all the targets.

If the Dow is indeed headed as high as 10111, this vehicle could get to 1090.75, a Hidden Pivot equivalent to the one flagged in the Indoo. The midpoint pivot at 978 has already been exceeded, but as of Monday night the futures had yet to blast free of it. To gauge the strength of any rally today, we should look for signs of resistance at 1022.00, a lesser pivot that should nonetheless show at least 10-15 minutes of stopping power. _______ UPDATE: Overnight weakness is being attributed to punk earnings from SunMicro and Texas Instruments, but the selling seems a tad overdone if that's the case, especially with Libor spreads detumescing sufficiently to console and comfort bulls. My guess is that DaBoyz have pulled their bids, manipulating a correction from yesterday's egregiously overbought highs in order to create some bargains for themselves.

The futures could rally today by $80, or fall by nearly $60, without saying much. The only trade I can discern that looks even remotely appealing would entail bottom-fishing at 768.30, a midpoint support that comes off the hourly chart. _______ UPDATE: The futures have drifted lower overnight and are testing the support of last Friday's lows near 772. A breach of the support would bring a Hidden Pivot target at 767.10 into play, and thence, possibly, another at 761.30. Finishing Stroke: The 767.10 pivot would have worked nicely for anyone who went bottom-fishing, since the futures rallied $16 off an intraday low at 766.40 -- 70 cents beneath the target.

We'll set the bar at 10.445 today to tell us whether buyers are merely kicking the tires. A print at that price would surpass two "externals" on the 15-minute chart, creating a robust impulse leg that could set the tone for the rest of the week. I've included a chart that show the location of the crucial second external peak. _______ UPDATE: Silver so far is holding up better than gold in pre-dawn trading. If the December contract can get past a midpoint resistance at 9.930, it would open a path to as high as 10.205 over the very near term.

As the U.S. economy sinks into a quagmire, colleges and universities are going to be especially hard hit, since they long ago became unaffordable for most Americans. Until recently, the exorbitant cost of a college education didn’t matter as much, since student loans were plentiful and parents could take out home equity loans to cover what they could not afford. But both sources have dried up completely in recent months, and that means the nation’s colleges and universities will have to scramble to fill seats next fall, when the problem hits full-force. Student loans should loosen up some in the meantime because the main source of such loans, Sallie Mae, is now backed by the U.S. Treasury. But in these increasingly hard times, the very idea of borrowing, whether against home equity or via an IOU to the Government, is going to seem less appealing than ever to parents of college-bound kids. (Click on image to enlarge) So far, the news media have emphasized only the supply side of the problem. The New York Times, for one, has run several articles about what parents are doing to cope. Here’s their short list, from a survey of 2500 respondents: Apply for need-based scholarships (67 percent) Require child to work while attending college (62 percent) Plan to get more student loans, including government loans (53 percent) Send a stay-at-home parent back to work (30 percent) Plan to take out a home equity loan (27 percent) Plan to liquidate a retirement fund (11 percent) Borrow from a relative (8 percent) Sell a home or other real estate (7 percent) No question, it’s going to be a struggle for most households. But what will the colleges do if student applications nosedive, as seems unavoidable? Apparently they haven’t given the matter much thought, assuming sources

The 747.40 downside target given here last week remains valid, although we should use a lesser Hidden Pivot support at 767.70 as a minimum downside objective for the near term (i.e., 3-5 days). A breach of the first would imply the second is likely to be reached. (Note: There is yet one more, obscure, support at 744.40 that also looks capable of engendering a bounce.) A bullish reversal would be signaled by a two-day close above 803.30, the midpoint pivot associated with the 747.40 target.

I searched the intraday charts high and low Sunday night for encouraging signs, but there were none to be found. All signs in fact point lower, and the respective midpoints of bearish patterns in virtually all time frames have already been decisively breached, corroborating a generally dispiriting picture. To project a minimum downside objective from here, I've settled on a lesser pattern that yields 7.515. However, since we always need to remain open to other possibilities, let's stipulate that a bullish impulse leg today exceeding 10.620 is needed to turn the short-term trend decisively bullish. One final note: The futures will have a chance to turn from 8.30, but if that pivot is exceeded by more than 4-5 ticks within 15 minutes of first being touched, assume the lower number (i.e., 7.515) is going to be reached.

A midpoint Hidden Pivot at 9151 is the number to beat if bulls are going to get something going this week. Let's require a close above that number for two consecutive days before we assume they've got control. That would imply more strength over the near term to as high as 10112.

The rally begun from the low 70s in mid-July looks bound for a crucial test of strength at 84.96, a Hidden Pivot resistance that lies about 2% above the buck's recent recovery high at 83.19. The target seems almost certain to show some stopping power, but if it is instead easily brushed aside, a strong dollar could be with us for a while. For now, 84.96 can be used as a minimum upside objective over the near term. The midpoint resistance, now a support, lies at 80.42, and that's where we might expect the Dollar Index to hang out if it needs to build some thrust.