Seasonality will be operating at nearly full-strength today, but I wouldn’t expect much of a rally. Look at the accompanying chart and you can see how every surge since early October has lacked follow-through. In fact, there has not been a single burst that exceeded two prior peaks — a clear warning that the Santa effect is suffering from the equivalent of typhus. For today, I have no great upside targets to offer, but the one well below these levels at 827.25 will remain valid until such time as 878.00 is exceeded to the upside. If that happens you could use 895.75 as a minimum upside objective, but it’s not worth more than two ticks’ risk if you choose to go short there.