TBT UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (48.15)

9099The sharp rally of the last two days pushed TBT to a peak at 49.28 — not quite high enough to get us filled on our put order. However, the pullback looks like it is developing enough thrust to propel TBT above our original target at 49.59. so I’m going to recommend shorting at 50.55, a Hidden Pivot that looks capable of providing some stopping power. We’ll use the March 50 put (TBTOX), which should be trading for around 3.00 (see option calculator). The price is just a guess, which is the best we can do with the target still more than $2 away, but we can hone it by observing changes in the reflected Feb 50 put bid as TBT gets within 15 or so cents of the target. Please note that buying put options in this vehicle is equivalent to initiating a long position in the underlying Treasury future.