April 2009

As of 11:30 p.m., the electronic index futures were predicting the Dow would open about 80 points lower on Wednesday. The selling would become serious, however, if the Mini-Dow, currently trading for 7478, were to fall below 7351.

Let's try to leverage the Comex Gold target by using an analogous support in this vehicle at

The breach of a midpoint support at 43.94 implies TBT is about to fall to at least _____, the support's 'D' sibling. Let's be ready to bottom-fish there with a bid for two June 43 calls

A midpoint support at 907.60 that comes from the daily chart (A=1009.80) should be used as a minimum downside target for now, but if it's decisively breached expect the downtrend to continue to at least

Only the little stuff looks tradable at the moment (i.e., 1o:30 p.m. EDT). Nor are we inclined to hazard a prediction about Wednesday's action, although, to judge from the glum note on which stocks finished yesterday, the burden of proof will fall on bulls when stocks

Inflationists and their crackpot theories took another pounding yesterday on news that home prices had plummeted at a record pace --19 percent since last January. Residential real estate values have now fallen by 30 percent nationwide since peaking in 2006. In trying to reverse this trend, the Fed would appear not to have gotten much bang for its buck, since the central bank has committed an estimated $11 trillion already, targeted mainly at large mortgage lenders. Success is certain to become even more elusive after New York City's real estate market implodes, as it soon will. The last time the Big Apple was seriously on the ropes, President Gerald Ford told the city to drop dead. What will Mr. Obama tell them? And, will the Daily News still be around to report it so memorably? Concerning the rampant inflation that nearly all mainstream economists expect, we would ask these dismal scientists to predict exactly where it is most likely to surface. Will real estate values finally catch fire again, pushing tract homes into the billion-dollar range?  Will a dozen eggs cost $90.  Will assembly line workers at Ford negotiate a package worth $300 an hour?  Will college tuitions quadruple in the next few years?  Of course not. Where would the money come from?  Surely not from wages, since the businesses that would pay them are doing well merely to survive these days. And not from a massive credit binge either, since the only collateral we could use to borrow up another storm is...our homes. Why can't economists see this?  And why can't they understand that the deeper taxpayers go into hock to "stimulate" the economy, the more drag there will be on future growth? Only  Hyper-Inflation Is Logical To be clear, let us note that hyper-inflation seems entirely possible, even