Pandemic Humor, and Some Tips…

Gallows humor kept the Rick’s Picks chat room from slipping into coma yesterday as the stock market went into yet another soporific dirge. With swine flu metastasizing globally by the hour, there was talk of Black Plague, and also this revolting remedy, attributed to the late George Carlin: “The best way to get your kids immunized against almost everything is to go to India and order food off a street vendor, throw the food on the street, then feed it to your kids.”  We much preferred the household remedy of another subscriber, Don C., who considers grapefruit seed extract one of the most potent immune-system boosters commonly available. He says his family has just increased its dosage to 12 drops mixed with six to ten ounces of juice or water, three times daily.  “It has no side effects and is highly effective,”  notes Don: “The best precaution I personally know of.”  Detailed, technical information concerning this remedy is available on the Internet. 

pandemic-game-smallBut do we dare share with you the latest, scarier-than-scary dispatch from Erich Simon, our intrepid bird-flu correspondent? Reading between the headlines, Erich sees pandemic threats that go well beyond what the news media have reported so far. Here’s an excerpt from the e-mail message we received from him yesterday: 

 ‘News Fatigue’

 “Right on schedule, R, Margaret Chan raised the global Pandemic Alert to Phase Four. A couple of observations. First, the decision to raise the alert [originally] was not to have been made until tomorrow, Tuesday. So the situation must be worse than first appeared, and I suspected as much yesterday. Second, Ms. Chan indicated in her summary that the H1N1 in circulation would not necessarily be the virus that would cause the next Pandemic. This is a shocker that has gone over the heads of the mainstream, who according to Bubblevision are suffering from bad news ‘fatigue.’

“The global equity markets would normally be selling down hard after an increase in the Pandemic alert. But these are not normal times. This ‘swine flu’ is a bizarre distraction which beguiles the interpretation of the unfolding Pandemic reality… couched in the common cold. This could not be further from the truth, and when the death count gains notice, then the markets will respond appropriately. For those of us looking to bang a trade, this incongruity presents an opportunity to position for the incipient downside. Pandemic has all along been the greatest threat to global intercourse.

Escape Options

“Pandemic realities are set to unfold these coming days. I am now even more heavily invested in the short side, and am leaving on Wednesday on sojourn to Harrisburg to cement my Pandemic escape options.

“Our government could be doing everything to protect its citizenry: distributing cell phones and walkie-talkies (our number one advantage from ‘technology’) for proper ‘social distancing’ between neighborhood, household and professional personnel; creating physical-quarantine transitional spaces, beginning at the garage for individual households; setting up air-tight chamber arrays utilizing Visqueen and duct tape; furnishing bio-hazmat suits, and designating decontamination scrub-rooms for household personnel ferrying food and supplies.  These are just a few of the prudent and practical and affordable preparations that the establishment should be budgeting and instructing right now.

“But the United States government has no vested interest in the preservation of its citizens. Quite the opposite. Our government exits onto its own. This will become only too apparent in the events to come.”

(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)  

  • Chris Letizia April 29, 2009, 5:21 pm

    I just wonder if all this swine flu business is a big todo about nothing. Just like SARS (remember that one) that turned out to be nothing. The hype in those days was just like now with this “pandemic”.
    I wonder what they’re cooking up for us while keeping the average persons mind on swine flu, which is just the latest diversion in my opinion. Boost your imune system? Absolutely. Not, however, just for swine flu.

  • GlennK April 29, 2009, 4:57 pm

    Those of you that are taking the Swine Flu alerts as a fraud should wake up and realize that the W.H.O and the CDC / Homeland Security don’t issue these warnings lightly or without cause. They are well aware of the possible economic and social costs of these alerts and do not issue them for the sake of just covering their own asses. Your cynicism is noted, but sooner or later it might just cost you your lives. Personally, I prefer to be a bit more prudent. Keeping a pantry with a few weeks of consumables available is just like savings account or having some gold coins & a few weapons around just in case. Our ancestors didn’t live like most of us do today, because in their day it would have been foolish and maybe even fatal. Also, just because, our host here Mr. Rick, likes to use his over ample literary skills to highlight this rapidly evolving situation is no reason to discount his warnings.

    &&&&

    Time to bone up on your Camus (The Plague), Glenn? RA

  • Chris T. April 29, 2009, 4:42 pm

    Mike, bravo!

    I was about to point ot the Mercola article, and can encourage everyone here to read it.

    Erich Simon writes that governments could (he implies a meaning of should though):
    “creat(e) physical-quarantine transitional spaces”
    and then he writes:
    “But the United States government has no vested interest in the preservation of its citizens. Quite the opposite. Our government exits onto its own.”

    And it is precisely BECAUSE the gov. cares only about itself, and not its ctiziens, that they WILL (and are) create these types of quarantine centers, rather than NOT doing so.

    It is entirely irresponible to fall for the pandemic-du-jour fearmongering as citizens, and thereby give government the justification for creating even more civilian prisons. Perhaps the only thing keeping an even bigger brother at bay, is our inate sense of freedom, which is most easily overcome by MSM and government spread fear (such as pandemics, terrorism, nuclear attacke, etc.).

    The easy passage of PATRIOT proves this. Therefore, I think Erich’s comment entirely misguided for lending support to gov, and also illogical for arrivng at his conlcusion for the purported inaction.
    This is not to say, that there could not be a real pandemic, somthing like that is not impossible, but this flu is not it.
    64-100 confirmed victims? That is not even an epidemic, let alone pandemic, and is most likely due to the state of the medical care system prevalent in Mexico.

  • Rich April 29, 2009, 4:35 pm

    LOL All:
    Pandemic pundits puked headlines when AF1 flew over the cuckoo’s nest, GDP dropped another 6+%, worst 3 back to back Qs since 1975 Vietnam and worst economy since 1957 when Ike ordered Marines into Lebanon.
    Most marketeers drive looking in rear view mirrors. Whoops.
    Meanwhile AMAD, COMPQ and NYAD made four month highs, with other indices breaking out. Financials refuse to be buried. Does this market look ahead or what?
    Flight to total return equities began March 6, leaving majority scratching empty sacks. Read my lips: Can we spell Buying Panic…?
    Regards*Rich
    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3251493

  • Mike April 29, 2009, 2:22 pm
  • kass April 29, 2009, 1:36 pm

    Bravo, Rick. Keep the literate comments coming.
    It’s people like Denis, wanting everything reduced to a common denominator mediated by the very narrow specs of spellcheck, that have helped the rise of mediocrity in this country, resulting in the great dumbing down that Hunter Thompson so lamented. It’s as if he’s afraid to learn something new, poor guy.

  • jp April 29, 2009, 12:46 pm

    Don’t worry about Denis, Rick. He’s probably cranky b/c he bought his gold at $970/oz and not $340… 🙂
    BTW, thanks for driving me to the dictionary! Sopoforic dirge! I’m gleaning much more than propitious financial acumen here!

    Come on world!
    Join hands!
    Get on the Love Train… the Love Train!
    (the O’Jays)

  • Mike April 29, 2009, 12:40 pm

    I think it is time for a bit of plain language balance on this swine flu hoax…below is a message I got yesterday that fits right in with my thinking:

    ——————————————–

    Swine Flu Hoax 2009

    For many years now the media has continually warned us about non-existent epidemics.

    None of these have ever come true ever. Not once. Now we’re being told the swine flu (H1N1) or SVI will not only be an epidemic but an outright pandemic, threatening the entire world. On April 26 a National Emergency was declared for no reason at all and zero fatalities. Saviour Obama has been “fully briefed on the situation.” What situation? This is a prelude to martial law folks. Bull crap. Years ago this newsletter told you bird flu was a total hoax. The media was telling you bird flu was going to decimate the world. Nothing happened of course. Swine flu is a hoax; there will be no epidemic.

    Read all at: Swine Flu Hoax 2009 http://preview.tinyurl.com/df44wn

    My buddy Henry comments:
    From: Henry
    Swine flu hoax

    Yep…… that’s what I’ve been thinking too…….. just another in a long line….. like the War on Poverty hoax, the War on Drugs hoax, the War on Terrorism hoax, etc. etc. etc. The movie “Wag the Dog” was both history and prophesy. We’ve been “through the looking glass” and into the “Matrix” of a “PR engineered ‘reality'” for a long time now. Wake up folks and smell the coffee.

    It’s about time we got up on our hind legs and stopped listening to the assholes in Washington. Their only real power is the power YOU give ’em by BELIEVING that they are real …… just like the little asshole behind the curtain in Alice and Wonderland. (I think he meant the wizard of Oz)

  • James April 29, 2009, 11:14 am

    Rick,

    Your buddy Erich sounds like half a nutcase. This particular strain of influenza doesn’t appear to be particularly virulent to begin with. Also, there is a widespread misconception that airborne transmission is the primary and common route of exposure. While flu can be transmitted by inhalation, that is not common, unless someone coughs in your face or you are performing a medical procedure likely to generate aerosols. Frequent and thorough handwashing is the best protection against getting influenza.

    Regarding grapfruit extract and other immune-system boosting elixers, the early evidence from Mejico suggests that it is the healthy who have suffered mortality, not the typical young and old. Google “cytokine storms.” Maybe the best precaution is to stay up late, eat poorly, and start smoking to weaken your immune system.

    The reaction from the US and World Health authorities, imo, seems to be Pascal’s Wager being played out. It’s a big over-reaction, but nobody wants to be accused of not being responsive, and it just might be a real threat. Big downside if you don’t take it seriously and it’s real, and no real downside for over-reacting and it’s not.

  • Bill April 29, 2009, 10:42 am

    Rick-

    Please ignore the dolt who is unhappy with your choice of words. To me its very refreshing. If a person has something worthwhile to say who cares how they say it?

    You are the best on these little pivot points. I use them on Scottrade Elite….are they comparable to what you do?

    Two comments.

    1. Go and dig out the truth about GDP. Most just accept the government generated number. I say its highly inflated so that we can carry more debt!

    2. Go and dig out the truth about the FDIC guarantee…. I think what you will find is that they simply say: They will pay the losses as soon as possible. That could be more than an average lifetime. It doesn’t trouble me that much. I don’t trust the government or the banks/credit unions and certainly not safety deposit boxes.

    My thinking is that all financial institutions may close without notice. Then what brown cow?

    w

  • mario cavolo April 29, 2009, 7:46 am

    …Myself and dozens of other expat friends were here in Shanghai during the entire SARS period, scratching our heads, wondering about the incredibly overblown, ridiculous, inane (sorry Mr. Herman, nice word eh Rick? ) global overreaction and the toll such an overreaction took in global commerce. The streets of Chinese cities were empty, businesses on siesta, asian women wearing pretty and useless Hello Kitty facemasks…

    Yet, mom was right: don’t touch anything in public, especially in Asia where public places are FILTHY, wash your hands frequently and do so, before AND after going to the bathroom, put layers of toilet paper on the seat, don’t push public buttons or doors with your fingertips, don’t hold subway/bus railings, doorknobs, with your bare hands, etc. I spent a few months working on a cruise ship…that industry’s little secret nightmare is how hard it is to keep illnesses from spreading on a big ship densely packed with over 3000 people every week…nuts what I learned about preventive hygiene while onboard and even still a ship would go “sick” with GI and flu bugs and the crew would have to go to extreme sanitizing measures when the passengers debarked…Cheers, Mario

  • Ken Wulff April 29, 2009, 7:26 am

    Hi Rick,
    I am a long-time fan but Denis H. has a valid point which is that sometimes your subtle humor makes for a slow read for the uninitiated. Maybe you should include a “Rick for Dummies” paragraph that pins down the (5?) W’s in declarative sentences!
    Best Regards,
    Ken W.

    &&&&&

    A slow read for the illiterate and the ignorant, perhaps. Dumb things down to their level, Ken, and pretty soon you’re inundated (you can look it up) by Suze Orman defectors, Beardstown Ladies and fans of Herb Greenberg. RA

  • Denis Herman April 29, 2009, 4:45 am

    Hi Rick

    I started out really enjoying your daily comments, they were very informative and I understood everything you wrote. However they have become more and more boring and incomprehensible on a daily basis. They are full of big words that only a very few chosen people understand and are used for one purpose only, which is to show everybody that you know them, but believe me they do not impress ordinary simple college educated individuals like me. Soporific dirge, metastasizing, Visqueen, what the hell do they mean, even “word spell check” underlined some of them. Is it really necessary to use words that most people don’t understand or will ever use in a lifetime. Everybody knows you’re a smart well educated guy but you know the old adage “keep it simple, stupid”
    Sincerely Denis Herman

    &&&&&&

    In the late 1960s, majoring in English at UVa, I came across the phrase “rutting cur’s rejectimenta” in Samuel Beckett’s Murphy and knew right then and there I wanted to become a writer. Realize that we didn’t have SpellCzech back then to tell us whether such words were permissible, and so reading was more of an adventure.

    In retrospect, Denis, it’s fortunate for us all that Beckett did not have an ordinary simple college educated guy like you as his editor, since you undoubtedly would have substituted “pregnant dog’s vomit” for his memorable phrase. . RA

  • cameroni April 29, 2009, 4:13 am

    OK, I call uncle.

    The dripping sarcasm is not a palatable meal tonight.
    I really question if we are not being manipulated by gov. and media as usual.

    On a happy note though I made some money on the current panic. Too easy.
    Way too easy. If only every trading session was such an obvious easy kill.

    But what if this turns out to be a real pandemic?

    My comment is this: From the close of the 1st world war until 1929 the markets rose almost continually. Finally resulting in the crash of 1929. But in the interim there was almost full employment. The 1918 pandemic killed off the working portion of the population, the youth, and subsequently drove a 10 year bull market until the big crash. Maybe that is our future too……….

    Could that be possible today? Should we be bullish on Pandemics?
    Let’s keep our thinking hats on and stay a little suspicious until something real happens.
    Like actual border closures….then worry a bit…..and then buy gold.

    Cam

  • cp April 29, 2009, 4:03 am

    This Erich Simon is going to be either a prophet or an alarmist, depending on how things go with the swine flu. I don’t know anything about him other than what is written here. Eerie how his recommendations about Visqueen and duct tape is just the thing that the Bush administration was flogging several years back.

    I do, however, agree with his premise, that we will at some time go down big during a pandemic. Like the earthquakes here in CA, it’s a matter of when, not if.

  • Daman Prakash April 29, 2009, 3:50 am

    Though humour attributed to late George Carlin is offensive on India, there is a tinge of scientific truth unwittingly. Excessive protection in western world has rendered immune system most vulnerable. Children need to be exposed in a measured way rather than protected.

    Excessive reliance on animal food is the root cause of many health problems. Vegetarians are less exposed to these vagaries.

  • TKO April 29, 2009, 3:22 am

    Pandemics, Bank stress tests graded on a curve, rising unemployment, Air Force One fly bys, no more Pontiacs, and what happens–stocks are flat and Gold gets smashed. Hard to figure. Influenza killed half of my ancestral family (12) in Brooklyn, NY in 1918. It can be a real problem, although the present strain does not appear to be excessively virulent. That can change, however. Meanwhile, the underlying strength in S&P can not be ignored. The path of least resistance seems to be higher. Sell some gold, and stock up on Tamiflu and Ampicillin–just in case!