During an impromptu webinar yesterday, we calculated that our $13 strangle will have recouped about half its value if the stock reaches a 475 target that looks like a decent bet. Even so, bid/asked spreads were too wide on way-out-of-the-money September calls for me to recommend buying them, at least right now. _______ UPDATE (September 11):  We’ll book a $1300 loss on the strangle, which will go down as the worst trade in the 12-year history of Rick’s Picks/Black Box Forecasts.  We went into the trade with relatively little experience trading options on a $450 stock, seduced by the seemingly low implied volatility of GOOG puts and calls.  In retrospect, it would appear these “cheap” options were priced very knowledgeably, so that they more than discounted the risk of an explosive surge above $500 (or below 270, the strike price of our puts).  Despite this, we have no trepidation about trying again, since Google has demonstrated  no special ability to fool us a second time. We’ll be looking to recoup every dime of our loss in the next round, so stay tuned!