July 29, 2009 Tutorial: Amidst Tedium, an Interesting Forecast

On an asphyxiatingly dull day — the fourth in a row — we stumbled upon evidence that all of this brain-numbing tedium could be the set-up for a nasty plunge. This was the conclusion we drew after looking at the E-Mini-Dow, which recently peaked within 14 points of a Hidden Pivot target that had been more than three months in coming. To leverage this possibility, we considered some option strategies that involved initiating calendar spreads with far-out-of-the-money put options. Liquidity is a concern, so we looked at various alternatives. We also looked at some Comex gold charts and found reasons to be patient.