July 2009

The daily chart has downside pressure being applied to price and the entry price for a move lower would be ____with P at ___. The upward price action was stopped by PO2 at ___. The up move isn't voided yet and the second price objective would be ____. The 15 min. chart looks a little better. Pressure is trying to turn up and apply upward pressure on price. The ____ area offered resistance and on this move higher ____ and ____ could be stumbling blocks. _____should offer temporary support. If that level is broken then look for ____ for your next stop.

Price has found support at the ____ level and is currently trying to move higher on the daily chart. If that level is broken you would be looking for ___ and then ___ as price objectives. For price to make a move higher on the daily chart price would have to go through ___ and then you could look for the 966 level. The price on the 15 minuter chart reached the ___ price objective noted in the chat room during the day. The ___ level indicated in yeaterday's post was hit early. Each price objective first acts as resistance and then acts as support. When a price objective is reached you should look at your indicators and see if it is telling you that the move is over. If so, exit the trade and look for the next trade. Right now there is downside pressure being applied to this chart and the price objective for the down move is ___. Look for some support at the ___ level.

(The following is the second part of a series of articles by Chuck Cohen, one of the smartest investors we know. After the series concludes on Monday with "Gold as Insurance," Chuck will be contributing to Rick's Picks on a regular basis, focusing in particular on opportunities in junior gold stocks. RA) Even after the recent rally, the stock market is still down about 35% since 2000, while the price of gold has risen almost 400%.  It seems logical, at least to me, to expect investors to have become a little intrigued towards gold. But strangely, that hasn't been the case. Inexplicably, the long-term view towards stocks remains remarkably upbeat, as though the alarming problems of the past two years have vanished. Just look up the very recent Barron's "Big Money Poll," or read the comments of the same economists who never foresaw even a recession coming down the pike. Conversely, few people have yet to acquire gold in any form--bars, coins or mining shares. Gold in most people's eyes is considered overpriced, dangerously volatile and perhaps even in a bubble -- in short, too risky and too late to get into.  To try to prove that gold is still a poor, unwanted orphan, I am inaugurating a series of articles on gold in Rick's Picks by posing a few questions, below. If you consider yourself a contrarian, you are especially likely to view gold as hidden from view and therefore very bullish. Speaking personally, and given the history of financial markets, I expect gold to rise until it culminates in the most spectacular run in the history of markets.  Any Bulls Here? Friends and Family: How many people do you know personally who own gold or gold mining shares? Have any of them called you to buy gold as they most

There may be a short term turn coming in the grains if soy is an example.  Price is oscillating around the 10.30 level and the downside possibility would be  9.72.  If 10.93 is hit you could get some real fireworks. (IT)

It is difficult for me to remember all of the terms that Rick uses to explain The Hidden Pivot Method.   So that you have a better understanding of my terminology I will give you the terms that I use.   The Entry Price is the level that would start a trade.  Po1 is my first price objective and I believe that would be Ricks P, or hidden pivot.  The PO2 price objective Rick doesn't use.  After years of trading I found that many times price rebounds off of that number.  And finally.  My target price would be your D. I use multiple time frames to trade.  It is something that I call the magic trick.  Think of it this way.  There can not be a change on the daily chart, before a change takes place on the lower time frame charts.  And the lower time frame charts are restricted by the limits provided by the higher time frame charts.  The same thing with cycles and cycles within cycles.  I will try to use Rick's terms as much as possible so as to not confuse anyone.  Uncertainty is a killer for traders. Volatility and liquidity are a traders best friend.  The greater the volatility the shorter the time frames that you can use to trade.  I set up today's put trade on the 3 min. chart.  I waited all day for price to reach the retracement target and then I bought the 85 puts at 37 cents and when price spiked down towards 88 I sold them at 47 cents.  Yes! that is only a dime, but it is $2000 on 200 contracts.  That is why liquidity is so important.  You don't need a large move to make a good return.  By the way the net was only $1800, there was $200 in commissions.

September Corn is trying to find a bottom with little success.  We are coming into the new-crop, old-crop scenario for the corn and wheat  spread.  For corn to have a chance to move higher it would have to take out $3.40 and then hold the low  on a retest.   A two-cent move higher from here could give a short kick but no home run.

Right now the Indu is trying to move higher. There is upside pressure being applied to the 60 min chart, so a short term intermediate rally could happen. The daily still has downside pressure. Look for some resiatance to move higher at ____. The daily still holds ____ as support with ____ as a short cycle target

The Mini did its tricks today. It first made the bulls happy and then the bears joined the party and danced for a while. Then came the double bottom on the 15 min. chart and the bulls jumped on the band wagon. A look at the chart will show that there is a price objective, P, at ___then another point at ___. From current highs price would have to go through ____ to start a retracement down with the first price objective at ____. The night session will give a clue as to what will happen in the morning along with some earnings reports. On the daily chart pressure is trying to turn up and apply positive movement to price.

The daily chart shows that GCU9 is working in a downward sloping channel. I am not a big fan of channels, but it does give a pretty good visual insight as to what we are looking at. With all of this downside price action there has been no major drop in the price of gold. There is still downside pressure being applied to the daily chart, but it is in an over extended area of the chart. Price found temporary support at the midpoint of the move at _____ and is now trying to reach D at ____. The 60in chart shows that price ws stopped at the target price, D, for the move down and has bounced off of that level. For price to start higher it would have to go through ____ and then the the first price objective would be ____. For price to restart the move down it would have to go through 903 and then the first price objective for that move would be____.