Apple shares took a stealth approach yesterday to achieving a 199.90 rally target that we’d touted last week as a “lead-pipe cinch.” The stock had gyrated gratuitously all day, settling a measly $2 higher at 189.95; then, after the close, it rocketed $15 higher. It’s hard to imagine why every investor on the planet would not have been long AAPL shares when regular-hours trading ceased at 4 p.m. Eastern. Shortly thereafter, Steve Jobs & Co. announced a 47% jump in quarterly profits. This could have surprised no one who has been to the mall lately, since Apple stores are among the very few that teem with activity at all hours of the work day, not just on Saturday afternoons. (We should mention that Verizon stores share this trait, as far as we have been able to observe.) As of early Monday evening, AAPL had soared as high as 204.85, somewhat exceeding our target. This suggests there are even larger, bullish forces yet to play out, calling for rally target of higher degree. Here it is: 231.00. That is what we call a “Hidden Pivot,” and it would very nearly max out Apple’s bullish potential on the longer-term charts. What could possibly put a lid on the share price of this world-beating company? Nothing that we can imagine – other, perhaps, than a deepening of the recession to such an extreme that Apple’s key demographic – i.e., hip, young telecommunicators who live in the Cloud – would be pressed to choose between eating Spaghetti-o’s or being less connected to cyber world. Microsoft a Me-Too Failure Incidentally, the rally target at $231 should not be taken as a guarantee that merely buying the stock at these levels will make you money. Indeed, a $45 pullback to around $154 (a Hidden Pivot) would be
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Martin Armstrong: crook, con man or genius?
– Posted in: Links Rick's PicksThe New Yorker magazine recently delved into the question of whether Martin Armstrong is a con man, a crook or a genius. Click here to access the article.
The Great Depression’s ‘Green Shoots’
– Posted in: Links Rick's PicksSightings of "green shoots" of recovery were as common during the Great Depression as they are now -- and just as pathetic. Benjamin Roth recorded the economic roller coaster ride for posterity in a diary that was the subject of a New York Times article published over the weekend. "How it was all over by 1930 — but it wasn’t. How everyone was giddy from all the government stimulus in 1935 and 1936 — and the sudden and dramatic reversal in 1937 and 1938. It resonates, especially at a time when all the mainstream economists focus so intently over the latest tick in the regional manufacturing indices or jobless claims or inventory-sales ratios. You have to go beyond the confines of Wall Street to see what is really going on beyond the trees — this was not a recession brought on by excessive inventories, or by inflationary pressures for that matter." Click here to access this must-read article.
