DIA – Diamonds (Last:111.32)

Pick of the Day: We’ll try to short a Hidden Pivot rally target today, but using two tactics that I usually do not advise. First, we’ll be using a limit bid of 1.15 to buy two May 111 puts (which closed yesterday at 1.63).  Ordinarily, we would buy the options based on the price of the underlying stock.  I will also suggest that you not attempt this trade unless the opportunity arises in the final 90 minutes of the session; usually, I avoid trades late in the day.  We are breaking the rules for two reasons: 1) with DIA at 111.79, my rally target for today, the options would be fire-sale priced at 1.15;  and, 2) our low-ball bid anticipates getting the puts dumped in our lap at the tail end of a late-Friday short-squeeze.  (NoteNo one should have to pay for Rick’s Picks, and that’s why I offer a Pick of the Day:  to make back the cost of your subscription, at the very least, over the course of a year — or a week, or even a day. )  ________ UPDATE (11:01 a.m. EDT):  Although the 111.79 target nailed the top of this morning’s spiky rally to within a nickel, the trade was a non-starter for two reasons.  First, the target was hit, not in the final 90 minutes as specified, but in the first hour; and second, the  bargain-basement option price of 1.15 was based on the time decay that we might have expected toward the end of day on a Friday.  In actual fact, the puts traded no lower than 1.30.  (Premium values sometimes dive in anticipation of the weekend, especially when the option expires that month ; I ran theoretical values for April 26 to determine how much the puts would be worth using a very conservative estimate.)