ECM10 – June Euro (Last:1.3224)

Two patterns embedded within the Euro’s recent decline point to essentially the same “D” target, which looks buyable.  The Euro spent the second half of April declining to new lows for 2010, cancelling another rally attempt and renewing its multi-month downtrend.  Within this recent decline are two valid and active patterns, one of which is especially appealing, whose “D” targets differ by only one pip.  The better pattern aims for 1.2935.  Traders should risk $125 per contract in the June futures by buying at 1.2938 with a stop at 1.2928. (Posted by Doug McLagan)  _______ UPDATE (10:25 p.m. EDT):  The Euro futures missed our recommended entry price by one pip this evening and have spent more than an hour tracing out a familiar bottoming pattern: a quick pop up, a re-test of the low which bottoms slightly higher, and as we write, an acceleration upward.  We will invoke the “no sloppy seconds” rule at this point and cancel the recommendation, as the odds in our favor are now much diminished.  We do want to point out that for both of the patterns in question, the low was more than 99% of the way from “C” to “D”.