Turning cautious is not necessarily turning bearish, although there will always be the question of whether a major correction looms whenever the futures grow heavy for a few weeks, as they indeed have. My strong feeling is that no particularly punitive swoon awaits, even if Comex Gold continues to demonstrate that it is in no great hurry to push up to minor rally targets, let alone major ones in the vicinity of 1300.  Most immediately, and from a technical standpoint, August Gold will need to avoid falling to 1191.00, the target of the pattern shown, in order to buck up buyers. That is a ‘d’ target, and it would be preferable if any decline today not exceed its sibling midpoint at 1200.70.  We’ll be watching closely in any case and will adjust our numbers if the point ‘C’ changes. (See also: our recent gold coverage.) _______ UPDATE:  Nice rally off an 1198.10 low today, but the futures still need to eke out three more ticks to nail it for the bulls.  As things stand, they have failed by that margin to surpass a 1221.90 peak made yesterday on the way down. This means the rally is not yet impulsive on the hourly chart, and that fact should leave us mildly skeptical.