ECU10 – September Euro (Last:1.2691)

September Euro (ECU10) price chart with targetsA rally target at 1.2721 that has been coming for a month lies within easy distance of yesterday’s highs, and you can short it with a stop-loss as tight as 7-8 ticks. I’ve used a one-off point ‘A’ to calculate ‘D’, but the lowest possible ‘A’ (at 1.1884) would yield an alternative target at 1.2750.  That’s a more conservative place to go short, but the risk is that the futures won’t quite get there. ______ UPDATE: A stop-loss as tight as five ticks would have gotten one profitably aboard, since the futures fell 37 ticks after topping in the late afternoon at 1.2725. Cover half the position at will if you shorted more than one contract; otherwise use a 1.2705 stop-loss, switching to a 12-tick trailing stop and a 1.2665 minimum objective if and when 1.2671 is touched. If you shorted four contracts or more, hold onto at least 25% of the original position for a possible home run. You’ll be on your own as far as managing the risk, but I’d suggest using the impulse-leg rule to warn of a bullish turn. Officially, we are still short a single contract whose basis has effectively been raised to 1.2782 by the closing purchase of a second contract at 1.269.  FURTHER UPDATE (12:10 p.m. EDT):  The futures fell to 1.2662 before getting any kind of bounce, implying a minimum theoretical gain of $600 if you followed my advice to-the-letter on a single-contract trade.  Officially, we logged a theoretical gain of  $1350 on the two-contract position. If you are still holding a contract for a possible home run, use a 1.2686 stop-loss for now and let ‘er ride.