GCQ10 – August Gold (Last:1195.7)

Until and unless August gold rallies above 1218.8, the daily chart will point down to the 1155.0 and 1140.1 targets that are so well known to pivoteers.  A rally into the 30-dollar range between 1218.8 and 1248.8 will cancel those targets and turn the daily chart from bearish to neutral.  As things stand, only a rally above 1248.8 would be impulsive, and that would have to involve the 1175.1 low as our “A” point: there is no one-off “A” candidate yet.  On the 20-minute chart we have an active pattern beginning at A=1184 whose pullback from 1201.2 to 1192.6 was exactly half the length of the AB leg, rendering the midpoint useless.  The “D” target of 1209.8 might be a good short, with a stop no higher than about 1210.3.  In the meantime if C=1192.6 is surpassed, take another look at the chart and if the pattern still looks good, recalculate.  Traders should bear in mind the upcoming gold options expiration.  And don’t forget to roll out of the August contract if you’re in it.  Most go to December, skipping over the neglected child of COMEX gold contracts, October.  (Posted by Doug McLagan)