We took a deeply skeptical view here yesterday of the buying frenzy that has pushed stocks sharply higher since early July. Not surprisingly, some market observers think the rally is the real McCoy – an entirely normal upthrust in an ongoing bull market. “The only question is, when will you admit you’re wrong?” asked a contributor, Keith P., in the Rick’s Picks forum. “[At Dow 12000? 14000? 18000? I’m just wondering. Will you be like the rest and say everyone else is wrong the whole way up — or at some point will you say, yes, I was wrong? I’m not bashing you at all,” he continued. “You kept us in many long positions the whole way up. You’ve done a great job. I’m just saying I expect new all-time highs in the market within a year or two. There will be no crash, no depression. We are not on a gold standard like in the 1930s.”
While we’re genuinely pleased to hear that Keith evidently has made hay taking our sometimes bullish advice, we couldn’t disagree with him more about the nature of the rallies; for they are a fraud, a key piece of the epic deception that would have us believe it is possible to extricate ourselves from a black hole of debt by taking on massive new quantities of…debt. “Ultimately, America faces certain bankruptcy,” we replied. “The Federal Government’s ability to create money from thin air may obscure this fact for yet a little while longer, but [we] seriously doubt that it will bring us new all-time highs in the stock market — or even a fleeting instant of real prosperity.”
Financial Sociopaths
Many who responded to Keith’s post evidently share our pessimism, but there was one reply in particular, from “Red Will,” that we would like to share with you. He write as follows: “…Keith’s comments and many like them come off as ‘punk-ish’ to me. The ’90’s bull market was largely based upon fraud. This past decade’s bull market was nearly entirely based upon fraud. There is deterioration and disintegration all around us by nearly every measure, and yet the Manipulation Cartel still has a strong ‘pimp hand’ at the moment. Again, if you want to argue that yet another round of the timeless shell game will be perpetrated and that we will see new highs as a result of their Herculean efforts in the name of fraud, then I can buy that and trade it accordingly. I don’t rule that out, not in the least. Nearly two decades of fraud-watching have taught me to be prepared to be astonished by the next offering of BS that these financial sociopaths will bring forth. But please don’t characterize it, as Keith seems to, in a way that makes it seem like we’re on the road to a standard bull market that’s based upon your organically produced, garden-variety macro expansion cycle.
“That’s what his ‘minimalist’ commentary implies to me, and maybe that’s from reading so many posts like his all over the Internet for over a decade. The notion that the market ‘always knows’ [what lies ahead] should be put to bed at this point. I told people to get out of Tech in December 1999. I started to buy the metals producers in 2004. I also told them to not buy into the housing bubble [from] 2005 onward. I also told them in the summer of 2007 to ‘collar’ their portfolios, at the very least. I’m a small-timer with limited resources. I don’t claim to be a sage. I don’t have a research team and quant teams, and I certainly don’t have access to insider scuttlebutt. I’m the father of four young ones and thus have only limited time. How is it that I could see imminent danger time and time again and that Wall Street, their financial media, and the enabler/co-conspirators in D.C. were explaining it all away? I’ve seen round after round of deceived clowns pointing to indexes that were being manipulated higher on fraud, and they all think that they will get out in time. Needless to say, they rarely want to discuss the market after ‘distribution and markdown’ have occurred. Keith is asking Rick to admit that he’s ‘wrong’ because the Cartel momentarily has the upper hand. At best this ranks [Keith] as a lazy commentator in my book.
In the Matrix
“If it weren’t for all [of the factors] that I enumerated and much, much more in my previous comments, the indices could/would(?) likely be less than half of what they are right now. Remove the FED from buying debt from…well, the FED, and where would things be right now? Price Keith’s beloved Dow [Industrials] in something besides our currency that suffers from relentless and severe ‘domestic abuse,’ and tell me how well ‘investors’ have fared over the last decade. So with that I’ll bring things to a conclusion by reminding Keith and his merry band of ‘buy-and-hold-ers’ that they need to raise their hands for two toasts when ‘the Dow’…vaults to new ‘highs.’ First off, they’ll be nominal. But more importantly, Keith and friends will also be celebrating the triumph of the Manipulation Cartel and the perpetuation of their Matrix. Here’s to Keith and his permabull brethren! Brothers! May they forever be comfortably numb.”
(If you’d like to have Rick’s Picks commentary delivered free each day to your e-mail box, click here.)
the way i have preserved money is to follow the global macromaven, felix Zulag who i think is somewhat in the guru categlry as John Templeton. where i disagree- Zulaf says markets today arehighly correlated-he predicts a dow of 500. he has ben right on so many occassions. any reader can google in Felix Zulaf and listen to his world view with barry Ritzholtz on the BIG Picture. He knows the world. He do not provide an american perspective. NOw fortue says gobal umemployment will be widespread. in Africa it is over 30 per cent- spain 2o per cent usa 9.5. i think we have tol ive with global unemployment for a decade-what are we told not to buy treasuries. treasuries maybe the biggest gainers in the next few years. who wants garbage treasuries. None. Hey netfilx and priceline look like hot stocks if you believe wiliam o’Neilll but like they are hot they can get cold quickly. I see very little date that tells me the stock markets is not a screaming buy. analysts got BP at 57. thailand, Indonesia, egypt look pretty god. Maybe they can buc k Zulaf’s predictions. He is very risk averse. So one might have to play two sides of the market. If every comapny is putting out an Alerian ETF, do you want to be in mlp’s even if they have outperformed the s&P 4 to 1 over the last 15 years. spanish home prices have to deflate. the crummy CD’s maybe a good buy for the next 3 years. Look you can go nutty trying to figure it out. somone who is computer literate should get FElix Zulaf on Facebook and i am surein 6 months, he would have 1 million friends- rohmer just quit . the GOP has no ideas. we need another super stimulus. If we do not get it, Zulaf once again will proably prove right. 3 outof 4 money mangers say deflation is out of the question- what if it comes? look the real story may be the Euro-for america to recover the dollar has to sink sink sink so we can create manufacturing jobs-but because of the wonderful net and outsourcing, we can live with 10 per cent unemploymjent for a decade also voice recognition. since the stock market is a game, I think the best place to put your money is in treasuries, in Africa, and in companies like Northern Trust or Tr price . asset gatherers-but everyone should google in Felix zulaf on the big Picture with barry Ritzholz-