DIA – Diamonds (Last:103.63)

Diamonds (DIA) price chart with targetsOur backspread — short August 102 puts, long August 98 puts in a 1:2 ratio three times — opened @0.14, but prices steepened thereafter and the spread closed at 0.41. I’ll assume an exit for 0.20 or less, which would have raised our $228 theoretical loss by a total of $60  (i.e., we paid 0.76 per spread to get in and another 0.20 to get out). We were unable to purchase September 101 puts for 1.00 as I’d suggested, since they never traded lower than  1.49. Expect the Diamonds to continue to fall, presumably to at least 102.54, a Hidden Pivot that comes from the 15-minute chart (see inset).  Shorting the downtrend will have to be on your terms, since I cannot predict how DIA will open, but if you choose to bottom-fish at 102.54, risk no more than a 15-cent stop-loss on any near-the-money calls acquired. _______ UPDATE (1:10 p.m. EDT):  My forecast very nearly caught the low, since it occurred at 102.78, but that was not quite close enough to get us aboard for officially for the bottom-fishing trade suggested above.