GCZ10 – December Gold (Last:1233.7)

December Gold (GCZ10) price chart with targetsTuesday’s wild gold trading left us with confirmed patterns pointing both up and down on the daily chart, a technical picture which echoes the mixed short-term outlook based on other factors.  The low Tuesday morning marked the biggest pullback of the four-week uptrend, but most of that pullback was erased during the sharp two-hour rally that followed.  Duelling commenters in the chat room suggested (1) that the low of the day felt like the late-August seasonal low, but (2) that retail physical demand remains weak since the price rose above $1200.  Traders with seasonals in mind should not forget the late-October low of 2008 and the action in stocks and Treasury bonds at the time.  More immediately, COMEX gold and silver options will expire tomorrow, an event which often has a way of exerting downward pressure on price.  So long as the recent high of 1239.5 is not touched or surpassed, the new bearish targets shown on the left side of the graphic will remain active.  Both midpoint pivots, at 1193.2 and 1185.4, are potential buying levels.  Our orientation is toward getting long, but the bullish pattern on the right portion of the graphic does not give us a low-risk way to do so.  Traders should look for a camouflaged entry, especially one that involves an impulse to slightly above 1239.5. (Posted by Doug McLagan) _______ UPDATE (2:02 p.m. EDT): Shortly before 5:00 a.m. EDT, gold popped up to 1241.7, cancelling the bearish daily pattern.  The subsequent pullback gave us a good-looking pattern on the 15-minute chart (with A=1231.9) projecting to D=1243.6.  The futures obliged by peaking at 1243.4 and then dropping by more than seven dollars.  Alert pivoteers therefore had multiple opportunities to profit based on the morning’s action.  The high of 1243.4, which has been hit twice, is eight ticks below our longstanding D target of 1244.2.