DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:81.25)

NVBOT Dollar Index (DXY) price chart with targetsBy exceeding all of our downside targets yesterday save one, the Dollar Index signaled more weakness in the coming weeks to as low as 79.08. Although the implied drop is unlikely to follow a straight line, it’s hard to imagine just who would be stepping in to support the dollar on the way down.  The Chinese have become net sellers of U.S. Treasury paper, so it won’t be them.  But neither will it be the dealers and hedge funds who have been sucking up Notes, Bills and Bonds, since they are already in dollars. As for Japan, its financiers are already up to their eyeballs trying to hold the yen down.  Under the circumstances, we may want to look beyond the Hidden Pivot target at 79.08 and use the trendline shown in the accompanying chart. It implies a further drop to around 76, which could turn China, Europe and the rest of the world even more hostile toward the buck.