Readers of these commentaries will already know that I don’t like to go too terribly far out on a limb when forecasting bullion’s next leap. I’ve always preferred to forecast long-term trends one predictable step at a time – a cautious but reliable way of seeing things that has attracted many like-minded subscribers over the years. There have been times when this approach contrasted sharply with my dire outlook for the economy. In the late 1990s, for instance, the column that I freelanced to the Sunday San Francisco Examiner was probably the most bearish rant published regularly in a big-circulation newspaper. Examiner readers would not likely have imagined that, on the guru side of my life, I was getting things consistently right in a stock-and-commodities letter that went out each day to professional option traders. I got it right because, rather than follow my instincts — which, to put it charitably, stink — I used coldly mechanical indicators.
Contrast that with the shoot-from-the-hip showmanship of Mr. Bet-a-Million, my colleague Jim Sinclair. Although his style and methods differ radically from my own, I have only respect for the man and for the way he has stuck to his guns on gold no matter what was happening in the markets. When an ounce was trading for around $1200 back in 2008, so certain was Sinclair that the price would rise to at least $1650 by this January that he baited doubters with a $1 million bet. Did he perhaps know something? Of course not. No one could possibly know for certain where gold would be trading three years from a given date. But he did know – and never tired of telling us — that the U.S. Government had embarked on the most reckless credit expansion in human history – a blowout so far beyond anything that had ever occurred that it all but guaranteed the continuation of gold’s steep upward trajectory.
Crazy-Bullish on Gold
Fortunately for anyone who has followed Sinclair’s advice, he has stuck to his guns. And although it’s possible that gold’s spectacular run-up will fall shy of the $1650 target, few would bet against it if the time limit were extended by just another month or two. In the meantime, Sinclair’s bold forecast will have served as a reality check against all of the lies, stupidity and nonsense that our political leaders feed us each day. Out-shouting all the other gurus, he has repeatedly warned that the Emperor and everyone in his court are wearing no clothes.
Personally, I am grateful that Sinclair’s crazy-bullish forecasts keep turning up in the Rick’s Picks forum, especially when bullion quotes get knocked for a loop as they did last week. And although I’ve never been entirely comfortable embracing the oftentimes nasty vicissitudes of the commodities world with Sinclair’s kind of zeal – nay, certitude — I have little doubt that he’s going to be right about the big picture. Which is to say, gold and silver investments can’t miss. Considering that the global money system is headed toward certain ruin, gold must be viewed as a bargain even at $1400 an ounce. Sometimes it takes a jolt to the imagination to see how obvious this is. Few have been more persistent at providing that jolt than Jim Sinclair.
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As a shareholder in several Oz stocks I’m very aware of the potential for Gold to take a hit over the next few weeks.
However for Gold to really rocket upwards I’m waiting for the Chinese Naval vessel to show up in NY harbour to take possession of the Feds bullion in exchange for the trillion or so of toilet paper the Yanks have unloaded onto China. ala DeGaulle it will make for an interesting passage in time.
regards