Say one thing for DaBoyz, they have infinite patience to wait until things turn their way, as things nearly always do. Stocks had been grinding sideways for nearly two months, but yesterday the prop-desk provocateurs instantly transformed the picture to their liking, goosing the broad averages into a powerful short squeeze that could keep the market buoyant for the remainder of the year. What was most impressive about this feat is that it leveraged some employment news that wouldn’t have elicited so much as a yawn in the good old days. Supposedly, the private sector added 93,000 non-farm jobs in November, up from 82,000 a month earlier. This is surely better news than we’ve grown accustomed to, but it is not good news per se, especially considering that jobs would have to grow at several times the current rate for nearly a decade to replace the estimated eight million positions lost to the Great Recession.
Based on anecdotal evidence, it’s hard to tell where the new jobs are coming from. It surely is not from the professions, which, to hear it first-hand from friends who are lawyers, Realtors and stockbrokers, remain in the doldrums. Nor is it in the trades, although one Master Electrician we know has been working overtime on big commercial jobs in Denver for more than a year. In Boulder, where the economy has remained relatively strong, the biggest area of growth seems to be, no kidding, Mexican restaurants. In nearly every instance where a moderate to expensive restaurant has closed and a new one taken its place, the replacement has been a tacqueria. The only exception that springs to mind is a Ted’s Montana Grill that opened just off Boulder’s main pedestrian thoroughfare. The steak house, one of a chain of restaurants owned by Ted Turner, stays crowded by offering very good burgers for $12 and a wine list with some good selections for under $20. Another restaurant, a popular breakfast-and-brunch spot owned by a friend of ours, is always packed with CU students, perhaps because mimosas and Bloody Marys are $1. On the retail side, there are quite a few large storefronts that are vacant, including a cavernous one that was occupied by Borders books. But smaller spaces seem to be about 80-90 percent occupied, and street vendors say business is good if not great.
Paradoxical Buyers
Concerning the potentially lingering effects of yesterday’s short squeeze, the rally was powerfully impulsive in that it blew past numerous old peaks on the intraday charts. Our price targets for the Dow and the S&P 500 were bearish at the close on Tuesday, but by the time yesterday’s session ended, most of the targets had been invalidated. Some bears would have covered short positions early on in the session, but there are always going to be some risk-takers, including a handful of die-hards, who will fight the rally for as long as possible. Paradoxically, it is these traders who will be supplying the buying power as stocks head inexorably higher into year’s end. It will be called the Santa Rally, of course. This pursy metaphor, along with one that may be even worse – i.e., a “Green [$$] Christmas” — resurfaces every year only because newspapers can no longer afford competent editorial help.
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“Don’t fight the Fed.”
This rally in stocks, from the infamous S&P’s 666 low (and the President’s great call that this might be a good time to invest in stocks near the low) has reinforced in me the correctness of the old, standard axiom, above.
The Fed can monetize more dollars that the shorts have to bet with. I don’t see why the Fed has to stop its cooperation/coordination with the Treasury. Where has the dollar index gone since trillions of deficit dollars have been spent? Where are the bruises on the dollar after all the monetization abuse?
Again, I’ll ask about the quadrillion in derivatives “problem.” Where have we seen any evidence that this is a problem now?
When “Da Boyz” decide to make money on the short side, we’ll have a correction. No, you’re not on their Action Alert email distribution list. But, hopefully, on Rick’s.