ECH11 – March Euro (Last:1.3120)

After three weeks of gratuitous delays, the euro has resumed its predicted collapse with a vengeance. A whiff of Spain’s predicament, perhaps?  No matter.  My downside target for the March contract is 1.2689 (Note: This has been corrected upward), and you can plan on bottom-fishing near there with a 1.2692 bid, stop 1.2682. _____ UPDATE (January 13): This week’s short squeeze may look impressive on the 5-minute chart, but it would need to hit  1.3494 to negate our bearish target.  Meanwhile, there’s plenty of camouflage cover for a bull trade using Wednesday’s 1.3142 high as an impulsive point ‘B’. (Late note:  The camouflage set-up, with single-bar coordinates at B-C, worked nicely, signaling a long entry just ahead of an extremely powerful, 2.5-cent rally.)  _______ FURTHER UPDATE (January 18):  The futures have rallied ferociously, apparently because German paper has been enjoying strong demand. It would take a print above 1.3493 to invalidate my bearish targets, but at this point it looks likely. Accordingly, any camouflaged scalp- or swing-trading should be done from the long side.