NEM – Newmont Mining (Last:56.98)

Newmont Mining (NEM) price chart with targetsAdjusted for theoretical gains recorded so far on an initial position of 400 shares, a hundred shares remain with a cost basis of 41.22.  I’d intended for this to be a long-term position, and so we will be selling call options against it from time to time.  Specifically, I expect the stock to reach 57.49 before the rally cycle begun in mid-March is due for a rest, so that is where we’ll look to do a near-the-money covered write.  My confidence in the target is high because of a recent stall a penny from the 55.07 midpoint of the bullish pattern shown.  If and when Newmont settles for two consecutive days above that number, or trades more than 50 cents above it intraday, a finishing stroke to the target will become an odds-on bet. _______ UPDATE (April 6, 3:24 a.m. EDT):  A strong upthrust has brought Newmont within putting range of the covered write we’d planned. Accordingly, I’ll recommend shorting one April 57.5 call if and when NEM gets within a dime of the target. You can use your discretion on this, playing it down to the wire, but please note that I expect  the stock to make a tradable top with 2-3 cents of the 57.49 pivot. _______ FURTHER UPDATE (April 6):  Newmont head-faked on the opening bar to 57.31, and I am not amused.  For now, maintain the short offer as suggested. _______ FURTHER UPDATE It appears that, for a rare change, we actually benefited from the opening-rotation sleaze factor, since the call option we were trying to short opened on the high of the day, 3.00.  This effectively reduces our costs basis on the stock to 38.22 while giving us $3 of downside protection.  Newmont would have to move above 60.50 before the covered write starts to limit our upside potential.  If that happens and we simply let the stock get called away, our theoretical gain on the trade would be more than $1,200.