Yesterday’s
high came within four ticks of a longstanding target at 12409, allowing us to get short via camouflage while the weekly tutorial session was in full swing. There were actually two opportunities to get short, although the first, a minor abc downtrend just below the intraday high, would have stopped out traders for a small profit. We took the second such opportunity in real time, shorting two contracts at a conventional point ‘X’. The entry price was 12368, but adjusting it for the paper profit realized when we exited the other contract gave us a cost basis of 12378. A subsequent rally popped us out for no net gain or loss, but we’ll keep trying, since shorting at every opportunity has been a winner for us even when we were wrong. My gut feeling, based on how difficult it was to short the top and to stay short later, is that this brick is headed lower. Most immediately, a fall to at least 12330 appears likely, although this Hidden Pivot will not be very useful for bottom-fishing because it coincides with a key intraday low recorded yesterday. ______ UPDATE (10:38 a.m. EDT): The low occurred at 12335 overnight, giving way to a rally that so far has left the previous day’s 12405 high — The Mother of All Bear Rally Tops? — undisturbed.
