[Crude oil is just one of many things the world is running out of, says our friend Tom McCafferty, a frequent contributor to Rick’s Picks, in the guest commentary below. Never one to pass up an opportunity, Tom, author of Options Demystified and numerous other books on trading, suggests using puts and calls to manage short-term risks while investing for the long haul in “real entities that produce real products.” RA]
We are all familiar with all the hullabaloo in recent years over Peak Oil. Dozens of books and websites devoted an enormous about of space to scaring the pants off of us. In a few years, we would be all be sitting in a dark, cold room without access to “Dancing with the Stars”. Man …that will be a bummer. Before you get your blood pressure back under control, I’m here to tell you the Peak Oil is just the beginning. The World is facing more peaks that it can handle in the next few decades. For example:
• Peak Water: The World does not have enough water for crops or the increasing population. Every wonder why China was so aggressive to control sleepy little Tibet? Guess where the origins of the five great Chinese rivers are located? Or why it is importing so many tons of soybeans? When thinking about food importation, think of it as just a substitute for importing water. China is not alone. In India, the Green Revolution is now a disaster.
• Peak Population: How many people can the World sustain? I’m afraid we are going to find out the hard way. More specifically, how many senior citizens can it take care of … think of our Social Security system and then think of countries like Russia or Italy that have an even more serious aging challenge. China is right in line because of its one-child policy.
• Peak Money: How much fiat currency can the World float? Remember, there has never a fiat currency that did not collapse.
• Peak Weather: Global Warning or long-term cycles? It doesn’t matter. Oceans and temperatures are rising. Go long hip boots.
• Peak Politics: It has always been a mess and it only seems to get worse. Are there any politicians or leaders that are not just out for themselves? Sadly, it also applies to their constituents.
• Peak Taxes: Will there every be enough tax money to solve every problem? Can our cities, states and national governments every balance a budget and reduce their deficits? If we can’t, how are the poorer countries going to cope?
My point is there are more than enough problems facing the World and its investors to keep all the prognosticators busy. My advice is to trade short-term using options to manage the volatility and long term invest in real entities that produce real products that are needed to soften the critical “peak” areas.
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there is a finite amount of ipods on this planet. is there a problem with ipod supply? are we seriously threatened that we might not get enough ipods come next year? what makes them magically appear out of the ground? could it be the price?
what if we proclaim a right to ipod, and make them cheaper to those not willing to produce, while at the same time transfer the control over ipod manufacturing from Jobs to the government? encourage people to share the ipods, introduce quotas on ipod use, and roll out world-wide campaigns designed to prompt us all to “save the ipod”?
which way would this influence the ipod supply come next year?