SIN11 – July Silver (Last:39.625)

July Silver (SIN11) price chart with targetsCheck Tuesday’s chat room discussion from around 18:15, since I’ve summarized the always interesting thoughts of my colleague Ross Clark of Institutional Advisors (i.e., Bob Hoye, Inc.).  His worst case calls for a correction into the mid-$20s, with $35-$40 the mildest we might see. In either case, the pullback would take six to eight weeks to play out.  Rather than speculate on which, if either, scenario will occur — and even Ross doesn’t expect to know himself for at least a month — I’ll continue to track and forecast Silver in my own way, using target levels and price action at ‘p’ midpoints. Most immediately, we should expect a strong bounce from 40.015 if a quick recovery is in the offing.  That’s the ‘d’ target of the pattern shown, and the subsequent rally would need to exceed 44.300 this week to suggest that bears may soon be on the defensive again.  However, if the futures should close below 40.015, we’ll use 50 percent and 61.8 percent corrections to the January low (26.450) to get a fix on the July contract.  Respectively, they indicate downside targets of 38.145 and 35.385. _______ UPDATE (2:33 p.m. EDT): The plunge from today’s 47.375 high has opened up a path to as low as 35.390, subject to a possible bullish reversal from a lesser Hidden Pivot support at 37.280.  The latter number is my minimum downside target for the near-term, although an upthrust before Friday exceeding 44.305 would put bulls back in charge.