ESM11 – June E-Mini S&P (Last:1279.50)

June E-mini S&P (ESM11) price chart with targetsWe usually look for rally targets to get short; yesterday, however, with the futures down nearly 100 points from early May’s Mother of All Bear Rallies peak, we tried bottom-fishing — with inconclusive results. The E-Minis fell almost precisely to the target I’d billboarded last week, but they couldn’t get airborne.  Moreover, because the target had been five weeks in coming, we had good reason to expect a substantial bounce. That could still happen, but the fact that it did not happen yesterday on first contact with the target is ostensibly bearish. To be more certain of this, we’ll set the bar today at  1288.00, a tick above the peak shown in the chart.  A print at that price would turn the hourly chart bullish for the first time in two weeks, setting up a possible camouflage trade. Otherwise, look for the futures to continue lower — to at least 1269.75, a Hidden Pivot support hat can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1.00 point.  Its provenance is shown in the chart.