SIN11 – July Silver (Last:34.925)

July Silver (SIN11) price chart with targetsMy minimum downside objective for the near term is still 34.160, a Hidden Pivot that you could bottom-fish with a stop loss as tight as three ticks. However, given Silver’s recent failure to generate a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the daily chart, we should begin to think the unthinkable.  Assuming no bullish turnaround is at hand — it would take a pop above May 11’s 39.470 peak to get one underway — the less painful of two bearish scenarios calls for a reversal rally from 31.205, a midpoint support of the pattern that uses the higher of two B-Cs shown in the chart. The next-worst-case low, using the lower B-C, yields a midpoint support at 30.215.  Finally, as absolutely worst-case numbers, we have the ‘D’ targets of those two patterns at, respectively, 22.94 and 21.58.  That last number would imply a 57% correction from the May 2 high near $50.  My gut feeling is that we will not see the worst and that Silver’s resurrection will come at 30.215, the lower of the two midpoints. But even at that, the July contract would have a further $4.70 to fall, or about 13.5 percent.