SIH12 – March Silver (Last:28.980)

March Silver (SIH12) price chart with targetsMinor targets were exceeded so easily yesterday that we should skip the small stuff and consider bigger bearish patterns. One projects to 26.010, and we should consider it a done deal if the 27.970 midpoint support with which it is associated gives way easily. Both numbers can be bottom-fished, but more immediately we should look for subtle opportunities to get short. Just such a one was manifesting itself on the hourly chart as we went to press, and I’ll therefore recommend shorting on a sell-stop if the 28.855 entry trigger is hit. Take profits on half the position at the 28.755 midpoint, and on another 25% at D=28.550.  With the single contract that would remain from an initial position of four contracts, you should use a bullish impulse-leg stop on the one-minute chart until morning.  ______ UPDATE (2:13 a.m. EST): The short triggered around 9:45 p.m. but was stopped out at around 1:26 a.m. The theoretical loss was 11 cents, or $550 per contract.  There was no chance to take a partial profit to reduce the risk, since the downtrend did not quite reach the 28.755 midpoint support of the pattern where we would have done so.  In order to learn from this trade, I’ve substituted a 15-minute chart for the 60-minute so that you can see clearly where it went awry.  To begin with, the 15-minute chart was where we should have looked for camouflage, not the hourly.  And, as you can see, the ‘X’ where we initiated the short trade on the hourly fell within a bullish A-B impulse leg on the 15-minute chart. Under the circumstances, camouflage if properly applied would have told us to get long rather than short — and with much less risk.  If you took this trade, please let me know in the chat room so that I can keep all who got trapped closely apprised, in real time, of the next Silver trade. And one more note:  We should be especially careful about taking longs from these levels, since last week’s low exceeded by 30.5 cents an important midpoint support at 28.425 that I flagged here five days ago.