The futures are falling after having gotten no higher than 1376.00 — fully ten points shy of the 1386.25 target I’d been using as a minimum upside projection for this phase of the Mother of All Bear Rallies. Strictly speaking, that target and a couple of others ranging up to 1397.75 remain valid. However, at the instinctual level, perhaps because I’ve been waiting since summer began for the stock market to drop the hell dead, I am tempted to believe that shares are about to take a very nasty tumble. Regardless, I’ll be closely monitoring the hourly chart for clues. Most immediately, a print at 1385.25 today would signal that buyers are back on the attack, while a fall to 1296.75 in the days ahead would suggest the contrary — i.e., that sellers are gaining momentum. The significance of both numbers is shown in the chart.
