Wanna Bet Dow Rallies to Exactly 13259.62?

If you’re a market-watcher who has grown as bored as we have with this month’s tedious ups-and-downs, here’s a black magic forecast for the Dow Industrials that you can track in real time to help make the time pass. Besides the entertainment value of watching this prediction play out, you’ll also be able to trade it if you desire. The predicted rally is nothing spectacular — just a modest, 185.58-point upthrust in the Indoos.  How could we be so brashly certain that the impending surge will be exactly 185.58 points?  Hidden Pivot Analysis, is how. That’s our propietary technical method, and if you use it to analyze the chart below, the price pattern on display looks too pretty to fail, even by an inch. We employ a simple ABCD wave form to predict these moves, and although this pattern in particular looks somewhat gnarly, it becomes a perfect “ten” when subjected to just a few simple rules.

Okay, it’s at least conceivable the rally will miss our 13259.62 target by a hair. Even so, we can all but guarantee that the target will be reached, and without an intervening correction. Both of these outcomes are confidently predictable because of the way in which yesterday’s surge moved so easily through 13,012, a  “Hidden Pivot midpoint.”  Notice how the steep, uptrending bar circled in red smashed through this price point without pause.  According to our proprietary technical method, this kind of price action at a Hidden Pivot all but guarantees that the target with which it is associated will be reached. As for the precision of the “hit” that we are predicting with such confidence, it comes from certain features of the ABCD pattern itself that trained “Pivoteers” are taught to recognize.

You Can Learn

You could learn to do these tricks yourself, by the way. As you’ll discover if you attend the upcoming webinar in mid-January, hitting bullseyes like the prospective one we’ve proffered above is just a cheap parlor trick that nearly anyone can perform. And so is “camouflage” trading, a technique designed to help traders overcome their fear of pulling the trigger.  If you have a belly button, you are absolutely qualified to  learn how to use Hidden Pivots, impulse legs and camouflage to manage entry- and dynamic risk effortlessly and precisely.

Or perhaps you’d rather spend December  watching Congress and Obama screw the pooch as America edges toward the supposed fiscal cliff?

  • Dennis.Tonevi December 19, 2012, 6:14 am

    Ya lost. Pay up.

    &&&&&&

    My guys don’t trade the headlines, lurker. Spring for a free trial subscription and you can see for yourself what we actually did. RA

  • Rick Ackerman December 7, 2012, 6:54 pm

    You could get it down to three hours of trading a week if you choose, Oregon. Frenetic day trading is unnecessary in any case, since the idea behind camouflage is to wait for opportunities to materialize on charts of larger degree, then to do the actual trade on the 5-minute bars or less. In practice, this might mean waiting for IBM to closely approach a p or D corrective target after the stock has trended lower for several weeks. When Big Blue gets within perhaps 20-30 cents of the target, you switch to a lesser chart — say, the 1- or 3-minute — to execute the trade. Using this method, there is never a reason to abide theoretical entry risk greater than mere pocket change. This goes not only for scalp-trades, but for long-term positions.

    To sign up for the Jan 16-17 class (and receive a $50 discount code good till 12/28), go to http://www.rickackerman.com and click on the “Seminar information page” link on the right-hand side. Once you’re registered, you’ll receive by regular mail a copy of the 170-page hard manual, a CD-ROM with more than 3000 annotated charts, and some Rick’s Picks swag. You’ll also have access to the full course in six hour-long recordings and to hundreds of hours of recorded Wednesday tutorial sessions. All are accessible 24/7.

    See ya in class!

    • Erin December 7, 2012, 8:26 pm

      I remember coming thru the door in an 8th grade English class on the first day and running right into the corner desk. I was riveted on the woman in front of the blackboard in a long blue dress. She was very shapely. Probably right out of college. It was the first class where I remained focused and needed extra help after class all the time. I am guessing the hidden pivot course won’t be like that class!

      &&&&&&

      If you’re aurally stimulated, Erin, you’re going to enjoy my Eartha Kitt impersonations. RA

    • Oregon December 7, 2012, 8:33 pm

      Damn you’re good. I bet you’ve actually sold hair to a dog!

      You throw in an autographed ‘ShamWow’, and I’m in.

      &&&&&&

      You’ll find some Rick’s Picks swag in the parcel that includes the 170-page manual and CD-ROM, Oregon. RA

    • Oregon December 8, 2012, 7:03 pm

      Forget the swag R.A., I want that Eartha Kitt impersonation; especially with Christmas coming!

  • Oregon December 7, 2012, 5:13 pm

    Rick,

    If you have a moment… I have been on the fence about taking your course for years actually. I am wondering if you would comment on the practicality of me using your system with only 3 hours (approx.) of computer time per trading day; I am a laborer by choice and trade, and any more time than that makes me want to go seppuku. I do love the markets, however, so I would love to have the tools to make my time more profitable.

  • ter December 7, 2012, 3:31 pm

    Here’s a second for Erin’s motion.

  • Buster December 7, 2012, 11:54 am

    Yes, take it easy guys. I know what looks like dishonest reasoning stirs our sense of right & wrong but different opinions & perspectives should be reasoned, questioned, even welcomed.

    BTW. My pet ‘house-pig’, the sometimes homeless guy that I’d given a free room to, unexpectedly moved out yesterday, three days earlier than the date that I’d given when I’ll be handing the place over to the letting agent. I knew he was sorting all his shit out but he didn’t tell me anything until the afternoon when he suddenly just came up, handed me the keys & said “I’m off”. No eye contact, no hand shake, no ‘thanks for giving me a free house to live in for 4 months out of your meagre reserves’ & neither was there any money towards the bills up to date, even though he’s been working doing odd jobs for people quite a bit recently. I think the unpaid Euro a day toward the bills that I’d originally asked for was some of the reason for the obvious distance but there was also some signs of contempt. However, since his reaction the other month to me asking him not to have the TV on 24/7 and to start turning lights off because the electric bill had soared to three times what it should be & because I was quickly running out of money having to support this habit, was one of annoyance rather than concern or apology, & since a similar reaction was observed when the neighbours complained about the TV being way too loud & on deep into the early hours every night; I’d already got a good measure of the kind of person I had tried to help out of my compassion & an expectation of how things would pan out. It wasn’t just the mess left in the kitchen, or the crap left in the toilet, or the loud belching or thunderous farting that told me that this man had no respect for anything, as you can tell a lot about someone by simply observing their manner, their body language & the way they speak.

    So inevitably he’s off to bleed someone else, who’ll soon tire of someone who’s of the mindset of taking rather than that of contributing even a little, as maturity should instil in us. But I don’t mean to sound too judgemental. Inter-related as all things are, the irony is that the parasitic mentality is the better adapted to survive in a monetary system built on ‘scarcity’, as debt based money certainly is, for the purpose of making the one thing that the schemers of it produce out of thin air of high value/demand, together with making that which this class do not produce, ie. real things & work, of low value; thus creating this increasing imbalance of parasite over producers now evident & eventually moving toward the point of failure as many note. The producers are quickly taken to the cleaners, much as I often find myself being taken for a ride, through rules, regulations, fines, fees & taxes, plus a never-ending stream of people who’s focus is a desperate need to find some money from somewhere, hence why so many ‘scammers’ & takers abound in government & private institutions as well as the general population, since interest is bleeding the supply of money dry & ‘work’ is continually penalized.
    Whatever is taxed becomes diminished , whatever is subsidized becomes more abundant. This decline in the nature, or mindset, of society is described in a quote by someone famous many years ago, & which I can’t remember exactly or presently find, unfortunately. Ultimately we would be in a far better place both personally & collectively if we subsidized work & production rather than the opposite.

    The only apparent relief peddled by the schemers of this system, is to borrow some more against something; anything & everything you have or will have in the future, even. Thereby delaying the moment of realization of the debt trap, or scam, but making the consequence more widespread, meaning that fewer people caught in ‘the trap’ will survive with their assets in tact. The real solution, never to be spoken about in government or mainstream circles under pain of death, is to return to a debt free money supply issued by a government concerned predominantly with upholding just law based on the principles of personal responsibility, that is at the heart of the basic structure of a healthy human psychological state. If there’s a God, then in understanding his image within us is no doubt reflected in scriptural support of private ownership of vineyard & home as a product of ones own effort, a declaration of such personal responsibility & acceptance of the consequences of our own actions upon ourselves; & also in the requirement of a debt jubilee limiting perpetual debts together with condemnation of hoarding money that creates scarcity; & in trade of goods & services by free will fair agreement & not overcharging through monopolising. The latter, was clearly demonstrated when Jesus overturned the money changers tables in the temple, who had monopolised the money market for temple payments & were inevitably overcharging. Like so many of our great leaders have learned to their cost, this last symbolic act against the money changers was right before his crucifixion, with the ignorant masses cheering on in support of their own oppressors for a few scraps, unaware of the world of abundance waiting beyond the curtained bars of their prison.
    There surely is nothing new under the Sun!

    In 1970 the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that the earth could produce enough food for more than forty times its present population, yet our world system, an image of the predominant way of thinking that rules us, prefers to lead us to fight over scarcity.

    “… The modern theory of the perpetuation of debt has drenched the earth with blood, and crushed its inhabitants under burdens ever accumulating.” -Thomas Jefferson

    The schemers of our present system clearly covet all things, but rather than take responsibility for this desire through real work, choose to steal the work of others through the sleight of hand that is their debt based monetary system.

    A few years after unwittingly signing the 1913 Federal Reserve Act, Woodrow Wilson stated: “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of  credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most  completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a  Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” -Woodrow  Wilson

    …yet still I hear some say there’s no conspiracy!? Mmm…..maybe a bit more medicine is required before we all accept responsibility for our transgressions & veering off the path that keeps us safe from ourselves? I really don’t know, but it’s certainly interesting watching events evolve, if a little painful & frustrating.

    • mario cavolo December 9, 2012, 9:44 pm

      Buster, great comments, charity is much harder and more complicated than it seems at first. I learned a simple rule about 15 years ago from a close friend. Do NOT put your energy and effort where it is not appreciated. You’ve only got so many cookies in your cookie jar, so be wise to whom you give them.

      The second part of that is to do our very best discern who truly should get and is worthy of someone else’s help or not, not always so obvious. So I stick with obvious, someone who truly and obviously can’t help themselves or someone who is truly making an effort, neither sounds like your recent belching freeloader…Cheers, Mario

  • Erin December 7, 2012, 10:27 am

    Rick,
    I am gonna take that hidden pivot course as soon as I can get some time to do the homework. The stuff you do with it is amazing. Do those pivots also apply to my Canadian venture and tsx stocks that I trade? As you know, some have liquidity and some don’t but they have been gold mines for me. I hold a couple longer term but mostly I like to catch them for the nice short term moves they make. These stocks are serious fun when you use stops, otherwise your DEAD! Please let me know.

    On a down note…Your fantastic blog with some incredibly smart, deep thinkers has turned into a childish fight with Gary on what seems like a daily basis. I can’t stand it! I know you own it and your in charge but it really sucks.

    I come here to read your take on many different subjects and it is truly a highlight whenever I can get to it. You have a great group of thinkers and it really gets me thinking outside the box. Is there some way you could take this behind the scenes, it has become god awful.

    &&&&&

    See my response to Oregon’s query, below. Hidden Pivots can be used to forecast any event that can be charted. If you are already trading, I can guarantee you that learning, for one, how to apply the very simple impulse-leg rule to manage stops will be worth the price of the course. RA

    • redwilldanaher December 7, 2012, 4:22 pm

      Most of the people ignore Gary most of the time. Every now and then there is a protracted flare up because most of the people get tired of Gary dodging the issues and NEVER answering anything with direct honesty.

      Gary and his crew prefer to spew out tired generalities and not really engage in a conversation even when repeatedly challenged. They just disappear for a while and come back and repeat…

      I’m part of the crowd that can ignore Gary most of the time but every now and then I have to respond to his madness for some reason. I rarely take issue with his predictions, it’s his incessant propaganda that troubles me.

      I blame myself. I should have the will power to ignore Gary so I would never advocate Gary and his ilk being banned or something along those lines but it’s Rick’s forum and ultimately a part of his business so it’s really up to him to decide.

      If Gary and his posse would actually deal in specifics and respond directly instead of scurrying off to hide for a while, Rick’s forum could register them as a positive instead of a group of baseless ideologues.

    • Oregon December 7, 2012, 4:58 pm

      Why don’t you elaborate on who the children are that are fighting with Gary.

    • Rick Ackerman December 7, 2012, 7:15 pm

      Occasionally, when I feel like deleting all of Gary’s irrelevant or annoying posts, I am prevented from doing so because there are by then too many responses from you guys to whatever he has written. Might I ask that you all stop taking the bait? I am guilty of this as well but will try henceforth to show more restraint.

      I never intended for this forum to become a place for political liberals to dump their ideological rubbish. Coping with four more years of Obama will be difficult enough for us all.

    • redwilldanaher December 8, 2012, 5:53 pm

      Gotya Rick. It’s time for Gary to get direct or fade away.

  • KS December 7, 2012, 5:02 am

    As current story is about the market, I feel confident not being off topic…
    Gary, I have missed your calls, that you mentioned giving out, most likely due to not following every day. Makes me want to go back and dig through commentaries.

    You are being confusing, and it’s not a matter of believing you or not. Let’s just establish a trading position at exact prices you entered for 50k, with exact instrument. TRUST me, most won’t follow it, so that is nothing to worry about. But as a proof of concept it is priceless. Rick is giving out and tracking positions daily, so what’s the big deal?

    And the way I know you are a troll, is that trolls online do anything they do for the attention they get. They way you bask in it, means you enjoy it, and keep coming back.

    And I am going to feed you that attention every day, I promise, but you have to give back. Let’s establish the trading position and we will run off into the sunset, holding hands, chatting away on the wonders of current economics.

    • gary leibowitz December 7, 2012, 9:53 am

      You and Rick can’t give it a rest with your bull. The last post Rick stated: Now wait. I thought that you were already long 3x ETFs up the wazoo?

      At which i responded: Now wait, I already said I “ONLY” bet 50 percent of my limit. Are you trying to catch me with a lie?
      =====================================

      It would be easy for me to “fake” the past, so I have decided to give the exact date/time/price as it occurs (within 24 hours). Believe me when I say it is very likely I double up within the month.

      Surely you can’t have any questions once i give this info out as it occurs.

      I really don’t care one way or the other. I don’t even care if you follow the bets. I have in the past told you my stance, but I guess you can’t believe anyone bullish this past 12 months can make money, and surely not with the ETF’s.

      I suppose your “crash around the corner” will catch me off guard. Not likely. Hows the “fiscal cliff” coming? Hows the other “end of world” scenarios coming, like EU, China, Housing, Unemployment, etc…

      I find it amusing that you can post on a daily basis the strong belief that a crash is here or will be very soon, and give so many reasons, for so long, that I get dizzy listening to them. For some reason you doubt my bets?

      For a short time I will give my real time bets. If they happen to blow up in my face than you can declare victory that the world really is breaking up.

      BTW, I mentioned that recently I also bet Gold. I am pretty sure they run-up together, but have used that as a hedge against my equity position being wrong. I see gold should move up to 2,500 to 3,000 before it takes a breather.

      &&&&&

      This will be your last post published here until you tell us exactly what you bought, when and at what price. Even now, after declaiming above that you are ready to come clean, you have failed yet again to supply the requested information. Bear in mind that you told us earlier that you are ALREADY long. RA

    • DK December 7, 2012, 10:58 am

      Gary,
      Now is your chance to put this “issue” to bed. Provide the details, it’s not difficult. Specifics are what interested parties are looking for, not fodder. You’ll only get more of the same if you keep putting out the same. No ambiguity, just the facts, finish it. Rick had directly asked for specifics, even if you don’t think he will believe you, what have you got to lose? You don’t care anyway, right?? No one is interested in some long winded gas about how you’ve done this or that in the PAST. Tell everyone what your CURRENT move is. Simple. Rick does it on a daily basis and he’s been pretty reasonable about coming to terms with his stances on things, perhaps you remember his Inflation/Deflation discussion with Gonzalo Lira.

      By the way, since you seem to have gone back to the previous comments section, what’s your response to my reply to you? How, exactly do you just decide to “pull the building” (building 7, of course)? Name ONE situation where a building was just demo’d on a whim. Every other instance I’ve ever heard of has been multiple weeks of planning, numerous individuals involved from multiple disciplines (not the least of which are pyrotechnics experts, civil engineers, architects, etc.), placing explosives throughout a building, having the licensing and permits in place, having a perimeter established with emergency personnel (for that specific reason, not because of another coincidental reason) etc. So they just decided to pull the building, just like that? Ha! What a feat!
      You basically told me you didn’t read my comment, came up with some cockamamie retort (try harder next time please), then back to your partisan political blubbering. Once again, save your political bickering for people who care, I certainly don’t. I’m an equal opportunity critic going back a long ways and I don’t necessarily believe in political parties, I’m pretty convinced they do far more harm than good, so you can skip it.