January 2013

A downside target at 36.42 beckons, although it is by no means ordained. Notice that the first attempt to put this vehicle away failed, resulting in the creation of a higher point 'C' high. That weakens the bearish case, although the weight of the pattern shown is sufficient to tip the argument their way for now. We can try bottom-fishing nonetheless with a 42.44 bid for 400 shares, stop 42.39.  This gambit is based on the 42.42 target of the pattern (on the 15-minute chart) A=47.53,  (Jan 2 at 10:15 a.m. EST); B=43.99 (Jan 8 at 10 a.m); C=45.96. _______ UPDATE (10:55 a.m. EST):  The stock crushed the support on its way to a so-far low of 42.03, making an eventual fall to 36.42 more likely.  Our trading loss on this speculation was minimal -- $20 theoretical plus commissions. You can learn how to do this stuff yourself. No kidding. Click here.

(The guru who takes a victory lap invites the market gods to smite him with a bolt of lightning. Even so, because things have worked out very precisely for a recent forecast drum-rolled here, I am airing yesterday's commentary for a second day.  In after-hours trading Thursday evening, Apple shares had dipped down to a so-far low of 447.36 -- exactly 19 cents from the 447.55 target disseminated to subscribers a week ago when AAPL was trading above $500 and rising. Battered and bloodied bulls should cross their fingers, however, since any further, decisive slippage beneath the targeted low would imply that Apple could grope its way down to 438.66 in search of better traction. Originally, Rick's Picks had told subscribers to back up the truck and buy shares aggressively if AAPL did indeed fall to $447.55. However, because this "Hidden Pivot" target has in fact been hit outside of regular hours, we are now suggesting that any buying be done either with a very tight stop-loss (i.e. 36 cents or less) or via a "camouflage" entry technique well known to those who have taken the trading course we offer from time to time. Click here for detailed information about the upcoming March webinar. RA] We had been looking for Apple to fall to at least $461, or to $447 if any lower -- a correction of about 37% from September's all-time high of $705. Last week, however, with the stock in the throes of a deftly engineered rebound after having gone no lower than $483, we moved to the sidelines. As we explained in a headline at the time, We'll Sit Out the Short Squeeze. And so we did, as Apple climbed to a recovery peak of $528 in off-hours trading yesterday afternoon.  That peak proved fleeting, however, to

This dog's latest discouragement has brought additional clarity to the intraday charts in the form of the 402.46 target shown. (Yes, it can be bottom-fished.) The midpoint support at 433.38 has served as a price pivot for two months, but with this morning's break to despairing new lows, it has finally been left in the dust, ensuring the target will be reached.  There's another pattern at the right-hand side of the chart with a point B low that is pure "sausage," but the value of this pattern is moot since its 402.17 target closely coincides with the one we've already determined is legitimate. _______ UPDATE (January 28 at 2:17 a.m. EST): By exceeding the target, the futures signaled their eagerness to test the structural support of lows made in July (385.20) and in May (372.74). We don't have to be vague about  it, however, since we have the 381.56 Hidden Pivot shown (see inset) to inform any bottom-fishing that we might attempt.

In commentary this morning concerning Apple's latest plunge, I alluded to a possible Mother of All Bear Traps in the Dow Industrial Average.  You should check out the DJIA chart in today's line-up, since it shows not only where the top might occur, but the precise location of a lesser one in the S&Ps that I've been drum-rolling recently.  The foregoing implies that the broad averages are capable of moving higher regardless of what Apple shares do.  You should allow for the further possibility that Apple, with a 447.55 worst-case target, is either at an important bottom or close to one, and an upturn in the stock could help buoy the market in the weeks ahead.  You can also click here to sample Rick's Picks free for a week.

The monthly chart shows the 14970 target that I alluded to in today's commentary as a possible terminus for the Mother of All Bear Traps. Although the futures have grown heavy in the C-D phase of the current bull cycle, it was to be expected, since they are taking the measure of the U.S. stock market's all-time high. Even so, you've got to respect the pattern, which consists of a very legitimate impulse leg and three single-bar coordinates.  You should take note as well of the 14098 target of a lesser pattern. I included it because it would seem to coincide very closely with the 1548.25 rally target I've proffered for the E-Mini S&P.

Apple's after-hours dive has overshot our 461.64 target by more than $4 -- presumably enough to imply that an alternative target at 447.55 is likely to be achieved.  That's a back-up-the-truck spot for buyers as far as I'm concerned, but there's always the risk that AAPL will turn rabidly higher from somewhere above it. To avoid missing the opportunity, camouflageurs should use the one-minute chart (see inset) to identify a serviceable pattern with an 'x' entry trigger. For your guidance, I've labeled just such a pattern to show you how subtle that signal might be.  ______ UPDATE (10:35 a.m. EST):  Sophisticated algorithms aside, the sleazeballs who work this stock clearly rely on round numbers to ply their dubious trade. In this case, they have turned AAPL higher from $450, since the next stop would have needed to be $400.  This tactic proved pre-emptive of my $447 target, but not by much.  As a practical matter, we've given up on the idea of bottom-fishing with camouflage this morning, since ostensibly tradable patterns on the one-minute chart were yielding entry risk of close to $2 per share. We had been prepared to accept risk closer to about 20 cents per share. _______ UPDATE (January 24 at 8:09 p.m. EST):  In after-hours trading Thursday night, AAPL has traded down to 447.36, but there has been no bounce to speak of -- only an uptick to 448.03.  Under the circumstances, the 447.36 bottom must be regarded as extremely fragile.  If you are long based on the tout, deploy a stop-loss at 447.19 until such time as 454.51 is hit. (That would generate a bullish impulse leg on the lesser charts and provide some breathing room.) Take a partial profit there, but save some shares so that you can swing for the fences with at

We took a geopolitical tour this time, pondering Switzerland’s entry into the global devaluation Olympiad. Other charts you can see here implied that interesting times will be with us again in 2013. We wrapped up this session with a ‘camo’ trade in Feb Gold that worked out nicely.

Will the fifth time be the charm?  IBM has been lunging for the 196.75 'external' peak shown in the chart since Thanksgiving, so far without success.  Yesterday's hysterical buying fell shy by 73 cents as well, but perhaps bulls are determined to remedy that today?  If so, a pullback from just above the peak would be a camouflageur's dream -- not to mention, bullish for the broad averages because of Big Blue's bellwether status. ______ UPDATE (9:59 a.m. EST):  No subtle camouflage opportunities today, folks, since this morning's memorably vicious short squeeze has goosed the Beemer $12 to a so far high of 208.58. The move is bullishly impulsive on the daily chart, but suspiciously, it has failed as yet to vault October 16's 211.00 high.

This morning's E-Mini S&P tout spells out the details for those who have been wondering how far this January blitzkrieg could go.  I'm not drum-rolling my target publicly since it is so fetching, but  if and when the futures get there, we've got plans.