Uh-Oh. Bad News Is No Longer Good News

Aren’t stocks supposed to rally on “bad” payroll news? If so, the Dow should have soared Friday on word that our allegedly recovering economy generated a sickly 88,000 jobs in March.  If that weren’t good/bad enough to inspire a psychotic buying spree on Wall Street, there was further news that a drop in the unemployment rate to 7.6% had been caused entirely by a huge exodus of workers from the job market. This stampede of the  despairing pushed the labor participation rate to 63.3%, its lowest level since 1979, undermining whatever  brazen claims the spinmeisters are making these days concerning the economy’s supposed re-awakening.

Until just a few months ago, rotten news like Friday’s would have sent stocks soaring, since it meant, according to the popular wisdom, that the Fed was likely to ease even more, and for longer.  Instead, the Dow Industrials spent the entire day struggling to recoup a 170-point loss registered on the opening bar. Alas, the effort failed, leaving the Indoos 41 points shy of unchanged even after a last-ditch attempt to short-squeeze stocks in the final 30 minutes of the session.

Stimulus Has Failed

Is it possible the stock market’s glumness on Friday was due to a growing recognition that stimulus has accomplished little or nothing to create jobs? Sure, the banks are awash in funny money that has no place to go besides stocks and bonds. And home prices have temporarily stopped falling, cushioned by untold trillions of dollars in monetary stimulus. But as should be increasingly clear to all, even to Obama’s cheerleaders and spinmeisters, these trends have manifestly failed to lift the working man, and therefore the U.S. economy, in a way that is meaningful, much less sustainable.

Meanwhile, the news media continue to propagate the destructive lie, absurd on its face, that the sole path back to prosperity for the U.S. lies in reckless fiscal tactics, financed by unlimited Fed purchases of Treasury debt.  Of course, with BRIC countries no longer buying U.S. paper, and the revolt spreading to other countries, it’s only a matter of time before the Fed becomes the sole participant at Treasury auctions.  Uncle Sam already effectively owns 100% of the mortgage market via Fannie and Freddie, and that’s why real estate – the primary source of collateral for a quadrillion-dollar derivatives edifice – is in a dead-cat bounce.

End QE3? Get Real!

How long can this go on?  The news media continue to evade the question. Instead, the Wall Street Journal gave us this headline over the weekend:  Jobs Report Reinforces Fed Wariness About Premature End to QE3.  Here’s the lowdown, you economic imbeciles: QE3 CANNOT END WITHOUT PLUNGING THE WORLD INTO DEPRESSION! With a quadrillion dollars’ worth of unredeemable paper swirling in the financial cosmos, even a mere uptick in lending rates would have trillions of dollars of deflationary consequences. Under the circumstances, it is virtually inconceivable that the central banks of the world will stop easing.  They won’t because they can’t. And so The Big Lie will continue to sustain the global financial system…until the moment when it no longer does.

  • redwilldanaher April 9, 2013, 6:48 pm

    By now it should have occurred to you that the strict rules you desire are always inneffective. The people that make those rules are corrupt Gary, as are the people that pull the strings of those that make the rules. The rules only pen in the masses so the few are free to abuse, which is really the intention.

    Since no governments ever have clean hands, the less government the better the, eh Gary?

  • redwilldanaher April 9, 2013, 3:06 pm

    So bad that I couldn’t just read it on stroll on by:

    “You must remember that we are in this mess not only because of the mortgage implosion, but because our so called evil government tried to please everyone all the time. I would emphasize they gravitated to the side of the money makers simply because it allowed them to stay elected longer.”

    Wrong, very wrong. It was a boondogle Gary. It’s always a boondogle. They sell it to people like you as some program that will help people in some way, shape or form. (regardless of fairness to other “groups” of people that they can later pit vs. each other) People like you keep welcoming this with open arms even though 99% of the time the government should have no business in doing what they are doing that you are cheering.

    A mere few of your friends from the Clintoon admin Gary:

    “Franklin Raines to pay $24.7 million to settle Fannie Mae lawsuit

    Former Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines and two other top executives have agreed to a $31.4 million settlement with the government announced…

    By MARCY GORDON

    The Associated Press

    WASHINGTON — Former Fannie Mae chief Franklin Raines and two other top executives have agreed to a $31.4 million settlement with the government announced today over their roles in a 2004 accounting scandal.

    Raines, former Fannie chief financial officer Timothy Howard and former controller Leanne Spencer were accused in a civil lawsuit in December 2006 with manipulating earnings over a six-year period at the company, the largest U.S. financer and guarantor of home mortgages.”

    Empire Gary.

    Perpetual wars Gary.

    Turning over the power of the printing press to a private, mostly foreign-owned “reserve” bank Gary.

    Monsanto Gary.

    Intentionally monopolizing and dumbing down the public fool system Gary.

    Testing STDs on citizens Gary.

    Trail of Tears Gary.

    Ginning up a war against its own citizens that simply wanted to leave and be left alone much the same way in which the founders did Gary.

    The government is a paragon of virtue Gary…

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2013, 4:04 pm

      Nothing you stated has changed my view. In fact it reinforces it. To tell me people with power and position abuse that power is nothing new. I have stated that we need strict checks and balances in order to “prevent” greed and corruption from happening. If we had strict rules that got enforced the temptation to cheat would diminish.

      In what country and time frame has any government had clean hands? Give me a model to work from. Clearly if these are signs of a destructive government you should be able to show me one that works. If not than why would you expect tomorrow be any different with any new regime change.

      You use the term virtue. Nothing I stated indicates that was my intent. I stated it is a sloppy mess, but one that seems to work better than most. We need police-dogs on the watch to prevent human nature from straying to its uglier side.

      &&&&&

      That’s it for this topic, Gary. Let’s give it a rest. RA

  • BigTom April 9, 2013, 3:58 am

    Comrade Gary – I don’t agree, but I know what you are saying….becoming subservient to the events and the event makers seems to be what is playing out. Just not in my make-up. Unfortunately all this comradism will not result in our getting ‘back on our feet,’ as you say. Watch it continually get worse and the more solutions ‘they’ offer, and the more solutions ‘they’ invoke, the worse it will get comrade, believe me……
    And as for, ‘but that is the price I am willing to accept….’ be careful to the concepts you goosestep to!

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2013, 4:26 am

      Not subscribing to communism, but more of an EU approach. Unfortunately they followed our lead and got caught up in our web of greed. We were the main exporter of this commodity. In any event I do agree that any approach from here might not be enough. I don’t place an evil face on these events since it has been proven that if you take an average Joe and placed them as the jail keeper with no restrictions, abuse follows. Human nature takes over. That is why I have always been a strong supporter of rules/restrictions even if it goes too far. I would rather stifle entrepreneurship than allow greed to catch hold.

      Capitalism is not a perfect system, none are. There will always be winners and losers where fairness is an abstract concept. All leaders of any economic system have power and advantages. If left unchecked, or citizens become complacent, huge imbalances and weaknesses of that system can get amplified. You must remember that we are in this mess not only because of the mortgage implosion, but because our so called evil government tried to please everyone all the time. I would emphasize they gravitated to the side of the money makers simply because it allowed them to stay elected longer. Self interests always trump humanitarian interests if the system allows for unchecked greed to occur. We rail against this evil government that allows the money makers to stay intact, yet also blame them for decades of “humanitarian” causes. Now there is a strange duality for you. So which is it? A soppy leftist hand-out government, or a bought government by the elite? I say both. We all know in order to become a good politician you must favor every side, all factions. Perhaps that is why politicians and lawyers get lumped together in such unfavorable light.

  • BigTom April 9, 2013, 1:14 am

    Gary – “Obama has set forth a spending cut (adjustment) to social security and other entitlements.” Perhaps I was somewhat muddled in my explanation above. I was not placing SS/Medicare in the ‘entitlement’ class. I was placing those monies into a fully earned principal and accrued interest catagory, owed back to working americans. That may seem a trivial point that MSM does get muddled, but it is a very important distinction. Do not confuse ‘earned’ money with ‘entitlement’ money. ‘Earned’ money witheld by the federal government for SS/Medicare was a full 15% of all wages paid to U.S. workers for how many years now? A long time now and most working americans are fully aware. That was an awlful lot of money that was fully owed back to the working class. ‘Entitlement’ money is money given away but never in effect earned by the recipient. Now, don’t with wide eyes believe the rhetoric that will be spewing from MSM, but watch for yourself who will be effected by the majority of the federal budget cuts coming down the pike….. will it be those in the ‘earned’ class of americans or those in the ‘entitlement’ class of americans?

    • gary leibowitz April 9, 2013, 3:24 am

      Yes I do see your point but all social programs have to be adjusted if we want to get back on our feet. The levy put on SS/Medicare doesn’t come close to the outlays. We have gone too far for too long without adjusting it to fit the needs of the citizens. It has the same consequence as pensions where the current contributions fall way short, or when the promissory note lacked proper fiduciary responsibility. My father was a printer/pressman and when it became computerized his pension got cut to a third it’s original value because there was no longer any new employees.

      In a fair and just world all money that were a result of contributions into the pool should be there for the people needing it the most. It goes against capitalism to do so. The corporations and individual that control capital flow have a stranglehold on the average Joe. That’s what makes capitalism work exceedingly well during good times, when there are marginal rules and buffers to prevent greed from taking over. It is no coincidence that lack or abandoned rules are always seen during peek capital imbalance. That is why I have always favored more rules, and enforceable old ones. Over burden of rules never bring on a capital collapse like the one we just witnessed. It does and can slow and retard growth, but that is the price I am willing to accept in order to prevent these huge swings. Again, a socialist concept.

  • John Jay April 8, 2013, 7:57 pm

    Cam,
    Yes I can get most things not in a box, bag or can for $.99 a pound on sale here. Chicken, tomatoes, potatoes, broccoli, apples, oranges, strawberries, you name it.
    But everything boxed, bagged or canned has soared.
    $5 for a big bag of Lays chips? Check.
    $5 for a 23 oz box of Quaker Oats high end cereal? Check.
    $1.79 for a 13 oz. box of whole wheat pasta? Check.
    $1.19 for a shrunken candy bar? Check.
    $100 an hour labor rate at the Firestone shop? Check.
    $ 4.23 a gallon Union 76 hi test gas? Check.

    Yes the Yen is plunging by design but I don’t see the price of new Japanese autos plunging.
    In fact car prices are stratospheric for even an econobox.
    15k to 18k for a new Toyota Yaris? Check.
    33k to 45k for a new Nissan 370 ZX? Check.
    Add to that an almost 10% sales tax and registration here in California.
    So used car prices are soaring here too.
    Cars like my old 1986 300 ZX were plentiful on the Autotrader.com website for 3k 0r 4k.
    Now the pickings are slim and the asking prices are mostly 7k or more.
    For a 27 year old car!
    But even that makes it half the price of a new econobox.
    And my old 300ZX still gets 22city/33 highway.
    Better mileage than a lot of new cars.
    And it doesn’t need $200 each low profile tires that last only 20k miles.
    So I have been rebuilding it because it makes sense to do it.

    So I guess the dealers get all the benefits of a falling Yen.
    I have not seen the prices of Japanese cars fall 20% since October of 2012 to match the Yen’s fall.
    But a lot of Japanese cars are made in the USA now.
    We are living in an economic kaleidoscope!
    What is real? What is an illusion?
    Harder to tell each day, isn’t it?
    It must make for interesting accounting entries for Toyota/Nissan/Honda.

    • BigTom April 9, 2013, 3:40 am

      JJ – Had a 1972 240z then a 1973 240z once-great cars. Cruised thru Nevada one time at 120 and even had a car pass me, had to move over into the slow lane!…lol. Sheesh, wouldn’t even think of doing that in todays world. Great hiway cars though and good mileage.Wish now I had kept them. Do you see much of the 240z cars there anymore? I think it would well be worth fixing up your old z car…..

      And….’What is real? What is an illusion?’ I can’t even keep up with it anymore. I take one day at a time and try to stay away from dem rabbit holes, but man, dat aint easy! Good luck with your z-car….

    • John Jay April 9, 2013, 3:13 pm

      Big Tom,
      I hardly ever see a 240z or 260Z anymore out here.
      But that applies to any 1970s car, even out here in California with the car preserving warm, dry, weather.
      Every car I owned in the past is now worth about 20k if it is in fine condition.
      I had a 1960 Thunderbird, a 1965 Chevy Impala, a 1969 Mustang Fastback, and a 1974 MGB.
      You would need a barn to store them all in though, and wait decades for the appreciation.
      Fun to look through the Autotrader Classic website to see what those old cars are selling for now.

      I saw a new Prius at the Firestone store with the wheels off. It has drum brakes in the rear and a flimsy looking rear suspension.
      I did not know they are still putting drum brakes on modern cars!

  • BigTom April 8, 2013, 7:11 pm

    Let me see….someone please help me with the math here if I got this wrong. We spend $1.5+- trillion more each year than tax revenues produce to support this bloated and decaying carcass we call……? Then stir in approx. $85 billion each month in QE buying bad mortgages, propping up the stock market, sending to foreign banks to stall off exposure to bad paper we have passed off and ? That adds up to another trillion each year which = approx. $2.5 trillion in excess spending per year according to my basic math. Then take 15% of all wages earned (which is/was alot!) held out from employee/employer contributions for SS & Medicare over many many years, and piss it away on anything legislators choose.

    Next, tell the retirement generation out loud so everyone can hear that they are greedy and SS/Medicare is really an entitlement this country can no longer afford. Never mind, we (legislators) pissed it all away on_______(you fill in the blanks here). Stir up good class warfare that the older population are really moochers living off the meager earnings of the younger people that are working for lower and lower wages, and sheesh, can we now really afford to pay their outlandish retirement medical bills any longer?….meanwhile never mention out loud cutting any of the real entitlements…. geeze, this stuff goes on forever…..I may have the math wrong here but ya’ll get the drift…..

    • mario cavolo April 8, 2013, 7:20 pm

      Nice rant Big Tom…

    • gary leibowitz April 8, 2013, 9:16 pm

      Tax revenue expected to be 2.7 trillion this year. 6 percent high increased over 2012. CBO estimates it could go as high as 11 percent over 2012. Spending expected to be 3.5 trillion. While it is still higher than inflow it represents one of the smallest increases.

      A small start, but everyone seems to forget that the front and center issue still remains cutting spending. I am sure that politicians will not ignore this number one priority. Obama has set forth a spending cut (adjustment) to social security and other entitlements. A start. Lets see where this leads.

      Am I wrong in assuming the hot topic for all of 2013 will be spending cuts? Will it be enough? Will it be too small and too late?

      My guess is that we go higher longer than all the pundits expect, and when it does turn over it will be a slow but grinding process, falling further than most anticipate. The notion of another sharp 1 month purge is remote.

      Finally, the consensus that the “hidden” cost is exponentially higher than the official one, would indicate that the world governments have managed to grow the economy enough for corporate profits and margins to stay near record levels. A feat that is remarkable considering it is over 4 years in a row. I am sure most have concluded that the growth is a result of government controlled interest rates and stabilizing the bond markets with unlimited money growth. You might be correct, but the real question is what will cause the lenders faith to falter? Can we create a policy where real spending comes below revenue? If so how long will it take to accomplish real change? I can’t answer that question. In my mind the odds of success are slim. In the mean time corporate earnings, consumer spending and borrowing, low interest rates, lower commodity prices should allow for a further rise in the markets.

    • gary leibowitz April 8, 2013, 9:29 pm

      http://finance.yahoo.com/news/scary-message-everybody-obamas-budget-165520713.html

      Came across this article which articulates my position. I find that as the problem of deficits become more publicized, so does the anger over the past and angst for the future.

      The big question is not retribution or fear that we will stay on the course of increased spending and deficits, but rather one of time. Do we have enough time to reverse course or is the solution unattainable? I have always stated that given enough time, in a stable environment, we can reverse the destructive path we are on. Can we have self sustaining growth where the Fed stops destroying the dollar? My take is no, but I will not presume to know the answer, only stay cautious.

    • John Jay April 8, 2013, 11:10 pm

      Big Tom,
      I believe the final total for the damage from Hurricane Katrina was 85 billion Dollars.
      So Ben is putting us in the hole to the tune of a Katrina disaster every month.
      Now that’s a plan!

  • Anthony F April 8, 2013, 5:49 pm

    Hi, check this out… Chris Martenson, triple top = 60%
    market collapse… any day now?
    http://www.moneynews.com/MKTnews/Market-Collapse-Predicted-By-Scientist/2013/03/13/id/494569?promo_code=1304C-1&utm_source=taboola

  • redwilldanaher April 8, 2013, 4:17 pm

    Guys, it’s really not all that bad. Gary will be here soon to explain why. Safe to say though that corporate earnings are AWESOME!!!!!!!, forward PE’s are CHEAP and accounting that supports all this nonsense is LEGIT and the FEDS are only doing what they should as always with the purest intentions! The FED has to do what it is doing and has done and will do too! YES they can solve a too much cheap money and detachment from risk mania with exponentially more cheap money and greater risk that we’re all “detached” from!

    We live in the best of all possible global economic frauds ever perpetrated!

    Eat, drink, be Krugmanesque for tomorrow we buy the dips!

    • gary leibowitz April 8, 2013, 5:16 pm

      Corporate earnings expected to be down slightly, forward P/E at neutral territory, accounting rules have changed and are transparent and therefore investors bet accordingly. If you know the rules, so too the investors. So far the 5 year experiment has not broken. You see that was my point all along, yet you ignore my rational for betting the long side, even in the face of massive market gains. So to justify your long standing position you just ignore the last 4 years as some sort of short sighted mistake everyone is making. Oh yeah, that’s right you expect the market to rally until some cataclysmic wakeup call where everything goes into free fall.

      As for your constant black or white views on everything, wake up. The world doesn’t operate that way. Regarding the Fed’s spending, please tell me who doesn’t know they are doing this? Tell me how hard is it to calculate the amount of money thrown into this economy and how much is already a total loss? You keep exaggerating the real numbers and justify it by saying that this experiments will fail and therefor I can include all liabilities. That might yet happen, but investors don’t bet on hunches, only real event actions. these actions are used to extrapolate the trend for the next 6 to 12 months. So far the market has proven itself to be correct.

      As for Mario’s recent article contribution I would on the whole concur with his reasoning. Once the peak of money distribution is made, and we start to see a reversal, that might coincide with the market top. Until that time I suggest you look at the high end stocks for verification of trend change. But hey, what do I know.

      &&&&&&

      You have always given “investors” far more credit than they deserve, Gary. Anyone “invested” in this market is not really an investor, but a speculator — one betting that he can escape ahead of everyone else when the inevitable collapse comes. Mostly, your “investors” are greedy, stupid, desperate yield-seekers who (per Marc Faber) have clustered on thin ice, thinking it safe because…that’s where everyone else is. RA

  • John Jay April 8, 2013, 2:47 pm

    Cam,
    Right now I can buy all the chicken I want on sale at $.99 a pound. While everything in a can or box has been inflating in price at the grocery, chicken and fruits/vegetables are always cheap here in California. I am waiting for big ag to follow big oil and begin to export frozen chicken/vegetables to foreign markets where it commands a premium price. Demand for crude/gasoline is back to 1997 levels but prices at the pump have not deflated at all. Exports of energy have taken up the slack caused by falling demand here.

    Add to that the endless lobbying by big business for more and more H1B visas and ever more open borders.
    I read one guy with a machine shop saying he was unable to hire enough “qualified Americans” to fill job openings at his shop. Here is what he was looking for.
    Experienced CNC machinists who were also a “whiz” at calculus and programming. Starting pay: $10 an hour!
    That is the mindset that argues for more, more, more foreign workers here, legal, illegal or guest workers.
    A flood of foreign money into our system is my last hope for this madhouse to hold together for the rest of my life.
    Luckily both the Japanese madhouse and So Euro madhouse are both even crazier that our madhouse.
    It’s all relative!

    • Cam Fitzgerald April 8, 2013, 6:02 pm

      Man, that is a great price for chicken, John. I pay double that up where I am on a good day so not only am I resentful about your California weather but now I also get to harbour a grudge that you get half price poultry!

      By the way…are you waching the Yen implode? Doing another swan dive again this morning. That was one hell of a great trade for those who got on board early.

      But where is the bottom? It is near parity already having already shaved 30% off the price of new Toyota in just 5 short months.

      Actually I would like to hear any good analysis about how this is going to impact the global financial /trade system. I don’t think enough has been said yet and it is not like we are talking about the Peso, Real or Ruble here.

      I mean to say that the Yen is absolutely huge in how it can impact everyone else but especially how it may impact on sales into the US. I realize this is off topic so maybe we can take it up another day but it has me scratching my head a little right now.

      Does anyone else wonder how big a bite this devaluation is going to ultimately take out of the Chinese economy for example?

      That’s what this is all about is it not?

      They refuse to revalue their currency appropriately and continue to lean on their export markets for expansion while running ever larger trade surpluses against the US which is getting to be a massive headache for everyone.

      Anyone care to estimate how many billions in mutual trade with America will shift from China to Japan in the coming year? How much manufacturing might move over if the Yen falls far enough? Lets not kid ourselves that closer trade ties with Japan do by default mean reduced trade with China where it comes to certain technologies. It might just be a good thing too especially considering all the cyber vulnerabilties that have developed.

  • BKL April 8, 2013, 2:44 pm

    Mario is so right about the relative security of rural life, when everything hits the fan at once. As always the important caveat is: If you know what you’re doing.

    If a farmer here in Japan really knows what they are doing, then they are a difficult person to replace. Only a handful of young people are choosing to “study” agriculture, and most of them don’t look like they could outlive government subsidies.

    It must be satisfying to produce rice, vegetables and tofu. All healthy foods. But here in Japan, you are also able to enjoy ridiculously low medical expenses. The best of both worlds.

  • Cam Fitzgerald April 8, 2013, 12:50 pm

    “When the global economy may truly sink as Rick talks about, China may go back to exactly the same position it was throughout history, shut down, isolated, self-sufficient, on its own” — MC

    ———-
    If only that were possible Mario. Perhaps in the early 1900’s they could turn that ship around. Not so today. China of 2013 is every bit as dependent as most Western nations on cheap energy and technology to supply the needs of its billion plus citizens.

    Self sufficiency begins with an agriculural base sufficient to support its own population. That means the majority must be rural just to begin with. You need to source goods locally to be secure.

    Meanwhile, everyone will need access to clean local sources of drinking water, a variety of foods like milk, meat, eggs and produce, timberlands, mineral resources etcetera. Given the level of ecological damage wrought thus far there is little hope of that being possible except in a few remote areas untouched by industry.

    Do you think they have a minimum of 50 million horses and other beasts of burden just to overcome local distribution of food and basic goods for example? Can they toil fields with oxen and plant by hand? Are they even prepared for a reversal or are they just like us, shunning the traditional skills in favour of technology careers and forgetting the basics of what made their society able to remain isolated for so long?

    I am not even trying to be funny here. You can appreciate that we are all (every last one of us) utterly dependent on a mix of technology and fuel and that society itself is within a hair of collapse if any of it stops working.

    We can never go back, only forward in faith it all keeps working.

    • mario cavolo April 8, 2013, 7:14 pm

      True as can be Cam, the global interconnectedness is the new variable that can’t be denied or trifled with…all I keep thinking is the word “inflation”…Cheers, Mario

  • bc April 8, 2013, 4:34 am

    And so the new question becomes; short term, how much hot Japanese and Chinese money will flee to dollar denominated assets? In the long term all the money’s no good, including the dollar, but a lot of musical chairs is gonna play out before then. What a long strange trip it’s been.

    • John Jay April 8, 2013, 5:28 am

      bc,

      “How much hot Japanese and Chinese money will flee to dollar……”

      All of it I hope!
      Throw in So Euro, Argentina, etc. too for good measure.
      Whatever delays the day of reckoning for the USA is fine with me, it is every man for himself, and the Central Banks should begin to turn on each other.
      As the worldwide Welfare State implodes it will become perfectly clear how few private sector jobs are available.
      In addition, you can add the rise of the machines to the global lack of jobs.
      Plans are in the works for robots smart enough to replace even the burger flipping jobs at fast food joints, it is just a matter of time now.

      That will leave gator hunting, sunken log retrieval, and moonshine distilling for humans to work at.
      I left out marijuana growing because that will most likely become legal soon, and big ag will shut out all the small timers up in Humboldt County California.
      In other words, the future of American employment opportunities can be seen in all the “Swamp People”, “Ax Men” type shows on the History Channel et al!
      Long US rural real estate, the South will finally rise again!

    • Cam Fitzgerald April 8, 2013, 6:27 am

      There is not even room for the last of the rugged self styled men of indepenence, John. Maybe you are right. Big Ag has a franchise on the farm and the wilderness too. I used to think the last line of defence was to have backyard chickens, pigs and goats. They are the ultimate form of money in a barter economy if everything goes suddenly wrong. Better than gold even because everybody needs meat (well most of us anyway). But the automation of the farm you speak of is actually already a truth in most of America. Those big chicken houses with two hundred thousand or more fowl can be staffed by just a small handful of people. All the feeding, watering, lighting is done by computer controls and machinery. Those chickens hardly see a human the whole damn time they are locked up in a battery cage laying eggs let alone see a ray of light until the day of slaughter. And the part that makes it so impossible for little guys is that the big producers can sell meat birds with the thinnest of profit margins when they get numbers so high. So my idea about backyard chickens is only fodder and feathers. Not that the worlds original currency (farmed meat) has any hope when the Chinese just had another outbreak of Avian bird flu. So add poultry to the growing list of doomed money forms along with Precious metals, Treasuries and Bitcoins. Maybe we really are condemned to live as servants to the new masters of mechanization. So where is the damn free Soma we were all supposed to get in the Brave New World?

    • mario cavolo April 8, 2013, 9:19 am

      Hi Guys,

      Cam you’re close to describing what boatloads of working class people are going to have to start facing. Yes, they can “survive”, but only if they wake up to the fact that their old life, the one they thought they could count on, is truly gone. Then, they will be forced to make new choices like raising their own food.

      I’ve said before, it is FAR more pleasant to be poor in China than in the United States. While my wife and I live a typically comfortable midde class Shanghai lifestyle renting a 130sqm apt that would cost $600,000 to buy, her cousin Erge up in Shenyang lives on the outskirts of town on a farm plot. Guess what, I think he’s the one who is far more secure than the ruined city dwellers with less ability to respond to bad circumstances than he. Erge’s daily lifestyle ain’t fancy believe me! And he might even make a sweet windfall when the municipal govt comes through and pays him off for his land lease upon which they will build a commercial area or highway. But he’s got all he needs because he sells some of his many goats, cows and chickens (skipping the current avian flu problem for the moment ) for money, while he eats the rest along with his wife’s daily fresh baked and fried breads and vegetables which cost a pittance…

      I surely did’n’t like walking in animal crap the day we visited, on the other hand, I could see they were secure, the food was plentiful, the baked breads were fresh, and cousin Erge doesn’t need a miserable job at Walmart just to pay his bills and $500/month health insurance premium. The more I think about it, the more I realize how truly screwed and pillaged America’s lower/middle income strata is. Thread continuing, Rick is right on the mark that “Obamacare” is going to bankrupt everyon. First, the SME employer will stop hiring full time employees to avoid the requirement, then all the employees working 28 hours a week WON’T have healthcare, and they’ll be working 56 hours per week because they’ll need two jobs. Then, the mighty govt’ will come along in response and lay down a new law limiting the # of part time people vs. full time people that the SME can hire! Of course at this point, the SME is literally being forced out of business by the rising cost of doing business, unable to make a profit and maintain even a decent salary for themself as the owner. Voila! They close their doors and now there’s more unemployment! Thinking a Walmart job might enable survival, they discover that Walmart stores are deserted, with far less employees on shift because even they are having trouble maintaining a profit.

      Sweet heavens, this part of the problem can’t end well…but meanwhile, Rick still overgeneralizes the problem as “the country” has a problem, but how then is it that car sales including luxury car sales and other similar measures of consumer spending are on the rise. I keep telling all of you why! It’s because the top 1% are 50 times wealthier, the top 30% are ten times wealthier, while the bottom 70% lower/middle income Americans are 50% poorer. Got it? If you add it up, the folks who are doing well have more than enough spending wealth to make up for the folks who have been screwed.

      I am not being arrogant on this idea of America’s societal schism, I don’t pretend I am speaking from deep, rigorous economic data with this idea, it just seems obvious based on the visible factors we can observe in the various sectors of the society; the state of corporations, employment, consumer spending, import/export, etc.

      Globally, it’s a sinking ship, with America as the fore anchor, followed by Europe as the aft anchor pulling the ship to the depths of the ocean floor, while their govts blow ballast bubbles of liquidity to desperately try and keep her afloat.

      However, don’t forget, the rest of the world, starting with Asia led by China plus strength in the Latin/Brazil bloc and Russian bloc, are getting along economically amongst themselves quite well, maybe enough to minimize the damage to their own ships, relatively speaking…While I can’t speak to other countries, the hidden cash spread throughout China’s cargohold will matter. When the global economy may truly sink as Rick talks about, China may go back to exactly the same position it was throughout history, shut down, isolated, self-sufficient, on its own. A few other countries in a similar position may do the same, forming a new bloc of countries that survived the global debacle, similar to the post-world war scenario where Europe’s global hegemony came crashing down forever as those idiots fought amongst themselves and destroyed themselves, with America saving their asses and then rising up to its modern position as the world’s superpower, soon, it seems, also coming to an end of sorts.

      Sorry, really long rant! Cheers, Mario

    • VegasBob April 8, 2013, 3:00 pm

      Hello Mario,

      I think your percentages as to wealth distribution are a bit optimistic. Here in the US, I think wealth distribution is heading to a 1-9-90 model, generally consistent with the old feudal model of human existence. It really cannot be otherwise, so long as Wall Street has free rein to steal everything that is not nailed down plus another half of everything that actually is nailed down.

      When this economic transformation is complete, the people in the top 1% will be in complete control. This group can actually be stratified into 2 groups – the merely rich (9/10 of 1%) and the super rich (1/10 of 1%). These people will correspond to the nobility in the old feudal system.

      The next 9% will live very comfortably, as they are the sycophants and toadies who will serve the rich 1%. They will correspond to the gentry in the old feudal system, enforcing the wishes of the 1% and being grateful for the opportunity to do so.

      In the US anyway, the entire economic system will be devoted to the care and comfort of this top 10% of the population, who will control 95% of the wealth.

      The remaining 90% will live like simple serfs. They will eke out lives of humdrum subsistence, much like the “proles” described in George Orwell’s book “1984.” The proles will quickly learn to never complain, lest Big Sister and her minions squash them like insects. All resistance to this “New Economy” will be futile – any overt acts the serfs may take to revolt will be quickly and brutally suppressed, much like the Occupy movement was quickly shut down by Emperor Obama and his police state.

      Meanwhile, the state-controlled news media will continue to endlessly spew forth the usual propaganda and outright lies about the wonders of the “economic recovery” and the millions of new, “good-paying” minimum wage jobs stocking shelves at food pantries and Walmart-type stores.

      None of this feel-good propaganda will ever come true, but what the hell! The State must give the masses a little bit of hope so that Emperor Obama can play golf in peace.

      Put simply, America’s economic future is going to give new meaning to the idea of hell on earth.

    • mario cavolo April 8, 2013, 7:11 pm

      Vegas Bob, having recently read the Penguin Book of World History, it is painful for me as I find it all too easy to agree with you…Cheers, Mario

  • fallingman April 8, 2013, 4:32 am

    QE3 CANNOT END WITHOUT PLUNGING THE WORLD INTO DEPRESSION!

    Exactly. Could this be any clearer?

    • Cam Fitzgerald April 8, 2013, 7:58 am

      That is kind of depressing if it turns out to be true, Fallingman. Then we really are doomed. Probably some sort of resolution is coming soon enough though, not that Joe Sixpack will like it too much. The parabolic rise in T-bills is warning us some trouble is afoot. Flight to safety perhaps? Who really knows anymore but with so much ink being spilled on the potential for a market correction it is pretty certain some of the money is heading to the sidelines for a little wait and see time. The dollar strengthening could also be a concern. I notice that the threat of deflation is again getting a lot of airtime which is a surprise after only hearing talk of impending inflation the past two years. Well we didn’t get any and now some analysts are seriously wondering what is really in store for us all. If only those damn Boomers would start spending again like the good old days but alas too many of them are broke since housing collapsed. I notice that the VIX is again rising off its bottom in tandem with treasuries going on a tear after a false breakout during February. So I looked in on a 3X S&P Bear to see if there was anything to divine from that. SPXS is fascinating if you check the 5 year chart. It stood near a relative high of 650 bucks back in 2009 yet today sells for a measly 12 bucks and change. Gee, a big fat market correction taking us back to the 2009 highs would yield a half million dollars if you slapped 10 grand on that sucker. No wonder some people hope to capitalize on a big correction. It might just be a very profitable trade being a big old bear after all.